New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties

Abstract. Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10 % in 2002 to 34 % in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.

[1]  G. Blöschl,et al.  The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods , 2013 .

[2]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Review article "Assessment of economic flood damage" , 2010 .

[3]  E. Penning‐Rowsell,et al.  New Insights into the Appraisal of Flood‐Alleviation Benefits: (1) Flood Damage and Flood Loss Information , 2000 .

[4]  B. Hurk,et al.  Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts , 2014 .

[5]  F. Klijn,et al.  Explaining differences in flood management approaches in Europe and in the USA – a comparative analysis , 2017 .

[6]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Tree‐based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance , 2017 .

[7]  T. Lustig,et al.  The Sydney Floods of 1986: Warnings, Damages, Policy and the Future , 1988 .

[8]  B. Merz,et al.  Coping with floods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany in 2002 , 2007 .

[9]  Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler,et al.  Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods , 2014 .

[10]  Bruno Merz,et al.  The extreme flood in June 2013 in Germany , 2014 .

[11]  Heinz Engel,et al.  The flood event 2002 in the Elbe river basin, causes of the flood, its course, statistical assessment and flood damages , 2004 .

[12]  Jim W. Hall,et al.  National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales , 2005 .

[13]  G. T. Raadgever,et al.  Assessing Stability and Dynamics in Flood Risk Governance , 2014, Water Resources Management.

[14]  H. G. Wind,et al.  Analysis of flood damages from the 1993 and 1995 Meuse Floods , 1999 .

[15]  B. Merz,et al.  Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany , 2011 .

[16]  Christian M. Grams,et al.  Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013 , 2014 .

[17]  T. Stocker,et al.  Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2012 .

[18]  Stephen W. Yeo Flooding in Australia: A Review of Events in 1998 , 2002 .

[19]  Dennis J. Parker,et al.  An evaluation of flood forecasting, warning and response systems in the European Union , 1996 .

[20]  Heidi Kreibich,et al.  Coping with floods in the city of Dresden, Germany , 2009 .

[21]  Sarah E. Kienzler,et al.  After the extreme flood in 2002: changes in preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany between 2005 and 2011 , 2014 .

[22]  B. Merz,et al.  Flood damage and influencing factors: New insights from the August 2002 flood in Germany , 2005 .

[23]  Peter Salamon,et al.  An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe , 2017 .

[24]  Dennis J. Parker,et al.  The Fallibility of Flood Warning Chains: Can Europe’s Flood Warnings Be Effective? , 2012, Water Resources Management.

[25]  Золотов Олег Владимирович,et al.  Total electron content disturbances prior to great Tohoku March 11, 2011 and October 23, 2011 Turkey Van earthquakes and their physical interpretation12helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German research Centre for Geosciences , 2012 .

[26]  Heidi Kreibich,et al.  The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts? , 2016 .

[27]  Bruno Merz,et al.  What made the June 2013 flood in Germany an exceptional event? A hydro-meteorological evaluation , 2014 .

[28]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Insurability and Mitigation of Flood Losses in Private Households in Germany , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[29]  H. Kreibich,et al.  The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses. , 2016, Disasters.

[30]  Volker Meyer,et al.  Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde River , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[31]  B. Merz,et al.  Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns , 2009 .

[32]  Fulya Filiz,et al.  Identification of flood producing atmospheric circulation patterns , 2005 .

[33]  Sarah E. Kienzler,et al.  Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households , 2016 .

[34]  B. Merz,et al.  Flood precaution of companies and their ability to cope with the flood in August 2002 in Saxony, Germany , 2007 .

[35]  David Ingle Smith Actual and potential flood damage: a case study for urban Lismore, NSW, Australia , 1981 .

[36]  Daniela Molinari,et al.  Modelling the benefits of flood emergency management measures in reducing damages: a case study on Sondrio, Italy , 2013 .

[37]  H. Kreibich,et al.  Data Collection for a Better Understanding of What Causes Flood Damage–Experiences with Telephone Surveys , 2017 .

[38]  Sarah E. Kienzler,et al.  Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 , 2016 .

[39]  B. Merz,et al.  LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE ELBE RIVER FLOODS IN AUGUST 2002 - WITH A SPECIAL FOCUS ON FLOOD WARNING , 2006 .

[40]  Jan Cools,et al.  Lessons from flood early warning systems , 2016 .

[41]  Daniela Molinari,et al.  A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness , 2011 .

[42]  J. Barredo Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970-2006 , 2009 .

[43]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies , 2017 .

[44]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA , 2016 .

[45]  U. Ulbrich,et al.  The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 – Rainfall periods and flood development , 2003 .