System dynamics at sixty: the path forward

The late Jay Forrester founded the field of system dynamics 60 years ago. On this anniversary I ask what lessons his remarkable life of innovation and impact hold for the field. From a Nebraska ranch to MIT, servomechanisms, digital computing and system dynamics, Jay lived his entire life on the frontier, innovating to solve critical problems. Today, more than ever, humanity faces grave threats arising from our mismanagement of increasingly complex systems. Fortunately, progress in system dynamics, the natural and social sciences, computing, data availability, and other modeling disciplines have advanced the frontier in theory and methods to build reliable, useful knowledge of complex systems. We must therefore ask: What would Jay do if he were young today? How would he build on the knowledge, technology, data and methods now available to improve the science and practice of system dynamics? What must we now do to explore the next frontier? © 2018 System Dynamics Society

[1]  Jack Homer,et al.  Why we iterate: scientific modeling in theory and practice , 1996 .

[2]  Albert,et al.  Emergence of scaling in random networks , 1999, Science.

[3]  Rogelio Oliva Structural Dominance Analysis of Large and Stochastic Models , 2016 .

[4]  David C. Lane,et al.  Jay Wright Forrester , 2011 .

[5]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[6]  N. Repenning,et al.  The Dynamics of Silencing Conflict , 2009 .

[7]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Testing Behavioral Simulation Models by Direct Experiment , 1987 .

[8]  Y. Barlas Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models , 1989 .

[9]  John D. Sterman,et al.  “I’m not hoarding, I’m just stocking up before the hoarders get here.”: Behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains , 2015 .

[10]  J. Sterman,et al.  Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model , 2012 .

[11]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[12]  Robert E. Wood,et al.  Unpacking mental models through laboratory experiments , 2016 .

[13]  D. Rand,et al.  Correlation models for childhood epidemics , 1997, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[14]  N. Repenning,et al.  Unanticipated side effects of successful quality programs: exploring a paradox of organizational improvement , 1997 .

[15]  Jay W. Forrester,et al.  System dynamics—the next fifty years , 2007 .

[16]  S. Arango,et al.  Exploring retailers' ordering decisions under delays , 2015 .

[17]  Yris Olaya Morales,et al.  Laboratory experiments in the system dynamics field , 2012 .

[18]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Learning in and about complex systems , 1994 .

[19]  Jac A. M. Vennix,et al.  Potential benefits of model use in group model building: Insights from an experimental investigation , 2018 .

[20]  F. Bass A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[21]  Leif D. Nelson,et al.  False-Positive Psychology , 2011, Psychological science.

[22]  Joseph P. Romano,et al.  Large Sample Confidence Regions Based on Subsamples under Minimal Assumptions , 1994 .

[23]  Christian Holz,et al.  Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5 °C–trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal , 2018, Environmental Research Letters.

[24]  Kimberly M. Thompson,et al.  Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions , 2015, Interfaces.

[25]  David Dunning,et al.  Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing? , 2018, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[26]  Jack Homer,et al.  A diffusion model with application to evolving medical technologies , 1987 .

[27]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Eradication versus control for poliomyelitis: an economic analysis , 2007, The Lancet.

[28]  Anil Vullikanti,et al.  Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases. , 2017, Epidemics.

[29]  P. J. Lamberson,et al.  Winner-take-all or long tail? A behavioral model of markets with increasing returns , 2016 .

[30]  Kimberly M. Thompson,et al.  Using system dynamics to develop policies that matter: global management of poliomyelitis and beyond , 2008 .

[31]  Y.-Y. Liu,et al.  The fundamental advantages of temporal networks , 2016, Science.

[32]  T. Fiddaman Dynamics of climate policy , 2007 .

[33]  D. Higdon,et al.  Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation by Differential Evolution with Self-Adaptive Randomized Subspace Sampling , 2009 .

[34]  Jenny W. Rudolph,et al.  The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice , 2009 .

[35]  Yaman Barlas,et al.  Model simplification and validation with indirect structure validity tests , 2006 .

[36]  D. McFadden A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration , 1989 .

[37]  Navid Ghaffarzadegan,et al.  Does analytical thinking improve understanding of accumulation , 2015 .

[38]  Kamran Shafi,et al.  A computational Intelligence‐based Method to ‘Learn’ Causal Loop Diagram‐like Structures from Observed Data , 2017 .

[39]  M. Banaji,et al.  Implicit social cognition: attitudes, self-esteem, and stereotypes. , 1995, Psychological review.

[40]  David R. Keith,et al.  Supply constraints and waitlists in new product diffusion , 2017 .

[41]  Andrew Jones,et al.  Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[42]  Bastien Chopard,et al.  Multiscale modelling and simulation: a position paper , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[43]  Mohammad S. Jalali,et al.  Estimating the parameters of system dynamics models using indirect inference , 2016 .

[44]  Erling Moxnes,et al.  Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development , 2000 .

[45]  T. Fiddaman Exploring policy options with a behavioral climate–economy model , 2002 .

[46]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Using Digest to implement the pathway participation method for detecting influential system structure , 2004 .

[47]  Cleotilde González,et al.  Why don ’ t well-educated adults understand accumulation ? A challenge to researchers , educators , and citizens , 2008 .

[48]  S. Strogatz Exploring complex networks , 2001, Nature.

[49]  Jim Smith,et al.  Special Issue: Franz Edelman Award for Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences: A Multimethod Approach for Creating New Business Models: The General Motors OnStar Project , 2002, Interfaces.

[50]  Edward E. Leamer,et al.  Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics , 1983 .

[51]  Jack Homer,et al.  Partial-model testing as a validation tool for system dynamics (1983) , 2012 .

[52]  Navid Ghaffarzadegan,et al.  The dual-process theory and understanding of stocks and flows , 2016 .

[53]  Cleotilde Gonzalez,et al.  Understanding stocks and flows through analogy , 2012 .

[54]  Felicjan Rydzak,et al.  Shaping organizational network structure to enable sustainable transformation , 2018 .

[55]  Joshua D. Angrist,et al.  The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con Out of Econometrics , 2010, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[56]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. , 1977 .

[57]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Do markets mitigate misperceptions of feedback , 2014 .

[58]  Katherine Baicker,et al.  Medicaid Increases Emergency-Department Use: Evidence from Oregon's Health Insurance Experiment , 2014, Science.

[59]  Armin Fügenschuh,et al.  Using white‐box nonlinear optimization methods in system dynamics policy improvement , 2017 .

[60]  S. Sloman The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. , 1996 .

[61]  Catherine J. Turco The Conversational Firm: Rethinking Bureaucracy in the Age of Social Media , 2016 .

[62]  Yaman Barlas,et al.  Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics , 1996 .

[63]  Yaman Barlas,et al.  Effects of systemic complexity factors on task difficulty in a stock management game , 2015 .

[64]  Richard Turner,et al.  Community and programmatic factors influencing effective use of system dynamic models , 2018 .

[65]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Supplementary Information for A Flexible Method for Aggregation of Prior Statistical Findings , 2017 .

[66]  John D. Sterman Exploring the next great frontier: system dynamics at fifty , 2007 .

[67]  Agata Sawicka,et al.  Simulator-supported descriptions of complex dynamic problems: experimental results on task performance and system understanding , 2011 .

[68]  V. Rao,et al.  An Interdisciplinary Review of Research in Conjoint Analysis: Recent Developments and Directions for Future Research , 2015 .

[69]  David C. Lane,et al.  A model simulator: The lives of Jay W Forrester , 2018, J. Simulation.

[70]  Jay W. Forrester,et al.  System dynamics—a personal view of the first fifty years , 2007 .

[71]  Nelson P. Repenning,et al.  Selling system dynamics to (other) social scientists , 2003 .

[72]  Christian Erik Kampmann,et al.  Feedback loop gains and system behavior (1996) , 2012 .

[73]  Gokhan Dogan,et al.  Bootstrapping for confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for parameters of system dynamics models , 2007 .

[74]  J. Sterman,et al.  Combining role-play with interactive simulation to motivate informed climate action: Evidence from the World Climate simulation , 2018, PloS one.

[75]  Edward J. Gallaher,et al.  Personalized ESA doses for anemia management in hemodialysis patients with end‐stage renal disease , 2018 .

[76]  Michael C. Frank,et al.  Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science , 2015, Science.

[77]  Erling Moxnes,et al.  Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management , 2004 .

[78]  D. Sterman,et al.  Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment , 1989 .

[79]  Paulo Gonçalves,et al.  Wasted paradise? Policies for Small Island States to manage tourism‐driven growth while controlling waste generation: the case of the Maldives , 2018 .

[80]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory , 2000 .

[81]  Aravind Srinivasan,et al.  Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks , 2004, Nature.

[82]  David N. Ford,et al.  Expert knowledge elicitation to improve formal and mental models , 1998 .

[83]  J. Forrester Information Sources for Modeling the National Economy , 1980 .

[84]  Cajo J. F. ter Braak,et al.  A Markov Chain Monte Carlo version of the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution: easy Bayesian computing for real parameter spaces , 2006, Stat. Comput..

[85]  Quassim Cassam Diagnostic error, overconfidence and self-knowledge , 2017, Palgrave Communications.

[86]  Jørgen Randers,et al.  A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100 , 2016 .

[87]  Joshua D. Angrist,et al.  Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion , 2008 .

[88]  Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,et al.  Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear Versus Nonlinear Likelihood , 2004 .

[89]  Rachel T. A. Croson,et al.  Upstream versus downstream information and its impact on the bullwhip effect , 2005 .

[90]  Andrew Ford Simulating systems with fast and slow dynamics: lessons from the electric power industry , 2018 .