Population growth and loss of arable land

Abstract I discuss the loss of cropland in developing countries in connection with the ongoing land conversion caused by the growing population and socio-economic development, resulting in an increased demand for housing, industry, infrastructure, etc. Based on assumptions about the required space per capita for other purposes than agriculture, the portion of this area that is removed from presently used cropland, and the quality of the available land reserves, the required demand for land reserves has been calculated. The main conclusions are that during the next three decades (i) the loss of cropland is likely to be within the range 30–60 Mha, (ii) the reserve land utilized will be about 100–200 Mha, and (iii) the reserve land still in use after 30 years, about 50–100 Mha.

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