APPLYING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS TO MODEL SYSTEM FAILURES DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER

Power system reliability is an essential component of network design and planning. The risks to which power systems are exposed can be modelled according to the long term planning states of the system. Similarly, a reliability analysis during the operation stage of a system should cater for those risks relevant in the short term. It is however uncommon to use different reliability parameters for planning and operating reliability studies. This paper proposes an approach based on the Beta probability density function that is applicable to both short and long term reliability analyses. The approach and model developed account for variation in reliability inputs and also allow for better interpretation of reliability outputs.

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