Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for tectonic earthquakes, assuming no upper magnitude bound. The data pass three specific tests: (1) the largest observed earthquake at each site scales with the log of the total number of induced earthquakes, (2) the order of occurrence of the largest event is random within the induced sequence, and (3) the injected volume controls the total number of earthquakes rather than the total seismic moment. All three tests point to an injection control on earthquake nucleation but a tectonic control on earthquake magnitude. Given that the largest observed earthquakes are exactly as large as expected from the sampling statistics, we should not conclude that these are the largest earthquakes possible. Instead, the results imply that induced earthquake magnitudes should be treated with the same maximum magnitude bound that is currently used to treat seismic hazard from tectonic earthquakes.

[1]  D. Eaton,et al.  Breakdown of the Gutenberg‐Richter relation for microearthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing: influence of stratabound fractures , 2014 .

[2]  Valentin Gischig,et al.  A stochastic model for induced seismicity based on non-linear pressure diffusion and irreversible permeability enhancement , 2013 .

[3]  I. Dricker,et al.  Characterization of an Earthquake Sequence Triggered by Hydraulic Fracturing in Harrison County, Ohio , 2014 .

[4]  S. Ge,et al.  Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection , 2014, Science.

[5]  Lisa V. Block,et al.  Deep-Injection and Closely Monitored Induced Seismicity at Paradox Valley, Colorado , 2005 .

[6]  C. Dinske,et al.  Probability of a given‐magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection , 2007 .

[7]  Y. Kagan,et al.  Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering , 2004, physics/0407018.

[8]  Lisa V. Block,et al.  The 24 January 2013 ML 4.4 Earthquake near Paradox, Colorado, and Its Relation to Deep Well Injection , 2014 .

[9]  H. Kanamori,et al.  A moment magnitude scale , 1979 .

[10]  Won-Young Kim,et al.  A Fluid-Injection-Triggered Earthquake Sequence in Ashtabula, Ohio: Implications for Seismogenesis in Stable Continental Regions , 2004 .

[11]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems , 2011 .

[12]  M. Holschneider,et al.  Can we test for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude , 2014 .

[13]  J. Dieterich.  A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering , 1994 .

[14]  Stephen P. Horton,et al.  Disposal of Hydrofracking Waste Fluid by Injection into Subsurface Aquifers Triggers Earthquake Swarm in Central Arkansas with Potential for Damaging Earthquake , 2012 .

[15]  Brian W. Stump,et al.  The Dallas-Fort Worth Earthquake Sequence: October 2008 through May 2009 , 2011 .

[16]  Shawn Maxwell,et al.  Hydraulic fracture energy budget: Insights from the laboratory , 2015 .

[17]  G. Abers,et al.  Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: Links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence , 2013 .

[18]  Hans-Peter Harjes,et al.  Source parameters of injection-induced microearthquakes at 9 km depth at the KTB Deep Drilling site, Germany , 1998, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[19]  Cliff Frohlich,et al.  Did (Or Will) Fluid Injection Cause Earthquakes? - Criteria for a Rational Assessment , 1993 .

[20]  A. Michael,et al.  Modeling Earthquake Rate Changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: Possible Signatures of Induced Seismicity , 2013 .

[21]  Matthias Holschneider,et al.  Estimation of the Maximum Possible Magnitude in the Framework of a Doubly Truncated Gutenberg–Richter Model , 2011 .

[22]  Arnaud Mignan.  Static behaviour of induced seismicity , 2015 .

[23]  E. Brodsky,et al.  The Uses of Dynamic Earthquake Triggering , 2014 .

[24]  Won-Young Kim,et al.  Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into a deep well in Youngstown, Ohio , 2013 .

[25]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  Seismogenic index and magnitude probability of earthquakes induced during reservoir fluid stimulations , 2010 .

[26]  Markus Häring,et al.  Characterisation of the Basel 1 enhanced geothermal system , 2008 .

[27]  Gottfried Grünthal,et al.  Induced seismicity related to geothermal projects versus natural tectonic earthquakes and other types of induced seismic events in Central Europe , 2014 .

[28]  I. Opršal,et al.  Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event , 2014, Journal of Seismology.

[29]  Serge A. Shapiro,et al.  Magnitudes of induced earthquakes and geometric scales of fluid-stimulated rock volumes , 2011 .

[30]  William L. Ellsworth,et al.  The 2001–Present Induced Earthquake Sequence in the Raton Basin of Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado , 2014 .

[31]  H. Kaieda,et al.  Microseismic Monitoring of Hydraulic Stimulation at the Australian HDR Project in Cooper Basin , 2005 .

[32]  M. Wyss.  Towards a Physical Understanding of the Earthquake Frequency Distribution , 1973 .

[33]  Jean-Paul Ampuero,et al.  An objective method for the assessment of fluid injection‐induced seismicity and application to tectonically active regions in central California , 2015 .

[34]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Frequency of Earthquakes in California , 1944, Nature.

[35]  J. G. Williams,et al.  A Reservoir Analysis of the Denver Earthquakes: A Case of Induced Seismicity (Paper 80B 1095) , 1981 .

[36]  W. Ellsworth,et al.  Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies , 2015 .

[37]  Cliff Frohlich,et al.  Two-year survey comparing earthquake activity and injection-well locations in the Barnett Shale, Texas , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[38]  D. F. Sumy,et al.  Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence , 2014 .

[39]  Katie M. Keranen,et al.  Enhanced Remote Earthquake Triggering at Fluid-Injection Sites in the Midwestern United States , 2013, Science.

[40]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[41]  S. Baisch,et al.  Continued Geothermal Reservoir Stimulation Experiments in the Cooper Basin (Australia) , 2015 .

[42]  B. Bolt,et al.  The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value , 1982 .

[43]  A. McGarr,et al.  Seismic moments and volume changes , 1976 .

[44]  P. Segall,et al.  Injection‐induced seismicity: Poroelastic and earthquake nucleation effects , 2015 .

[45]  Jon E. Olson,et al.  Causal factors for seismicity near Azle, Texas , 2015, Nature Communications.

[46]  D. Wyborn,et al.  Investigation of Fault Mechanisms during Geothermal Reservoir Stimulation Experiments in the Cooper Basin, Australia , 2009 .

[47]  Reinhard Jung,et al.  A numerical model for fluid injection induced seismicity at Soultz-sous-Forêts , 2010 .

[48]  J. N. Breunese,et al.  Induced seismicity of the Groningen gas field: History and recent developments , 2015 .

[49]  K. Aki.  17. Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the Formula logN=a-bM and its Confidence Limits , 1965 .

[50]  Nicolas Cuenot,et al.  Large earthquakes during hydraulic stimulations at the geothermal site of Soultz-sous-Forêts , 2007 .

[51]  C. Frohlich,et al.  The 17 May 2012 M4.8 earthquake near Timpson, East Texas: An event possibly triggered by fluid injection , 2014 .

[52]  Stefan Wiemer,et al.  Induced seismicity risk analysis of the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, Enhanced Geothermal System project: Influence of uncertainties on risk mitigation , 2015 .

[53]  Hans-Peter Harjes,et al.  Injection-induced earthquakes and crustal stress at 9 km depth at the KTB deep drilling site, Germany , 1997 .

[54]  Domenico Giardini,et al.  Reassessment of the Maximum Fault Rupture Length of Strike‐Slip Earthquakes and Inference on Mmax in the Anatolian Peninsula, Turkey , 2015 .

[55]  Austin A. Holland,et al.  Earthquakes Triggered by Hydraulic Fracturing in South‐Central Oklahoma , 2013 .

[56]  D. Wyborn,et al.  Induced Seismicity during the Stimulation of a Geothermal hfr Reservoir in the Cooper Basin, Australia , 2006 .

[57]  A. McGarr,et al.  Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection , 2014 .