Decision-Making for Risk Management in Sustainable Renewable Energy Facilities: A Case Study in the Dominican Republic

Today, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are a key pillar to achieving sustainable development, which is the main reason why energy projects are being carried out not only in developed countries but also in many emerging countries. Since the technical and financial risk remains a major barrier to financing renewable energy projects, several mechanisms are available to reduce risks on investment into clean energy projects. This paper discusses risk management tools in solar photovoltaic facilities based on the guide to the Project Management (PMBOK Guide). To do this, a combination of different decision-making methodologies will be carried out. These methodologies enable to not only extract the knowledge by experts but also to know the causes and effects that help to make the best decision. In order to do so, techniques to seek information (Delphi and Checklist) as well as diagram techniques such as cause and effect diagrams or Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) are applied. The categorization and prioritization of risks will be carried out through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Finally, a sensitivity analysis will allow for providing consistency to the obtained results. A real case in the Dominican Republic will also be presented as case study.

[1]  María Teresa Lamata,et al.  Consistency in the Analytic Hierarchy Process: a New Approach , 2006, Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst..

[2]  S. Hirschberg,et al.  Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector , 2014 .

[3]  Pablo Aragonés-Beltrán,et al.  An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects , 2010 .

[4]  Carlos Rodríguez Monroy,et al.  The impact of sustainable construction and knowledge management on sustainability goals. A review of the Venezuelan renewable energy sector , 2013 .

[5]  B.J.M. Ale,et al.  Risk Characterisation Indicators for Risk Comparison in the Energy Sector , 2009 .

[6]  Daniel M. Kammen,et al.  Renewable energy sector development in the Caribbean: Current trends and lessons from history , 2013 .

[7]  Özgür Yildiz,et al.  Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – A Monte Carlo Simulation approach , 2015 .

[8]  M. Stadelmann,et al.  De-risking concentrated solar power in emerging markets: The role of policies and international finance institutions , 2015 .

[9]  A. Azapagic,et al.  Sustainability assessment of energy systems: Integrating environmental, economic and social aspects , 2014 .

[10]  Andrea M. Bassi,et al.  Creating synergies from renewable energy investments, a community success story from Lolland, Denmark. , 2009 .

[11]  Heiko A. Gracht,et al.  A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment , 2013 .

[12]  Alfred Posch,et al.  Photovoltaic diffusion from the bottom-up: Analytical investigation of critical factors , 2015 .

[13]  Karsten Burges,et al.  Pros and cons of exposing renewables to electricity market risks--A comparison of the market integration approaches in Germany, Spain, and the UK , 2008 .

[14]  Helena M. Ramos,et al.  Sustainable application of renewable sources in water pumping systems: Optimized energy system configuration , 2009 .

[15]  Pia Gustafsson,et al.  An enterprise architecture based method enabling quantified analysis of IT support system's impact on maintenance management , 2009, PICMET '09 - 2009 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering & Technology.

[16]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Sustainable and Renewable Energy: An Overview of the Application of Multiple Criteria Decision Making Techniques and Approaches , 2015 .

[17]  J. Bryson,et al.  Energy price risk and the sustainability of demand side supply chains , 2014 .

[18]  Chun-Yu Lin,et al.  An Integrated Decision-Making Model for the Location of a PV Solar Plant , 2015 .

[19]  María Teresa Lamata,et al.  Selection of a cleaning system for engine maintenance based on the analytic hierarchy process , 2009, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[20]  Antonella Battaglini,et al.  Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa , 2012 .

[21]  J. Martínez-Paz,et al.  What weight should be assigned to future environmental impacts? A probabilistic cost benefit analysis using recent advances on discounting. , 2011, The Science of the total environment.

[22]  Perry Sadorsky,et al.  Modeling renewable energy company risk , 2012 .

[23]  Amit Garg,et al.  Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies , 2002 .

[24]  Dominican Republic Dominican Republic. , 2006, Department of State publication. Background notes series.

[25]  Güngör Tuncer,et al.  Financial risk management in renewable energy sector: Comparative analysis between the European Union and Turkey , 2011 .

[26]  Emre Iseri,et al.  A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy , 2011 .

[27]  M. Bohanec,et al.  The Analytic Hierarchy Process , 2004 .