Quantification of Uncertainty in Flow Simulations Using Probabilistic Methods

Abstract : In the last three decades, computer simulation tools have achieved wide spread use in the design and analysis of engineering devices. This has shortened the overall product design cycle and it has also provided bet- ter understanding of the operating behavior of the systems of interest. As a consequence numerical simulations have lead to a reduction of physical prototyping and to lower costs. In spite of this considerable success, it remains difficult to provide objec- tive confidence levels in quantitative information obtained from numerical predictions. The complexity arises from the amount of uncertainties related to the inputs of any computation attempting to represent a physical system. As a result, especially in the area of reliability and safety, physical testing remains the dominant mechanism of certification of new devices. Rigor- ous quantification of the errors and uncertainties1 introduced in numerical simulations is required to establish objectively their predictive capabilities.

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