Rail infrastructure : Challenges for cost-benefit analysis and other ex ante evaluations

Cost--benefit analysis (CBA) plays a major role in the ex ante evaluation of rail projects in many western countries. At first sight carrying out a CBA for rail projects seems straightforward, since cost estimates are almost always available, and the most dominant benefits are generally known, being the travel time saved and the increase in consumer surplus due to induced demand. However, the practice is much more complex: the quality of current estimates for costs and benefits is often poor and several benefits-related aspects are ignored. This article gives an overview of the challenges in improving the quality of CBAs for rail projects.

[1]  P. Rietveld,et al.  Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: a case study for The Netherlands , 2001 .

[2]  J. Bates,et al.  The valuation of reliability for personal travel , 2001 .

[3]  Yoshihiko Hayashi,et al.  International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal , 2000 .

[4]  Antonio Estache,et al.  Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization , 2002 .

[5]  Robert van den Brink,et al.  ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINKS IN COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES: A CASE STUDY OF THE DUTCH ZUIDER ZEE LINE , 2003 .

[6]  Phil. Goodwin,et al.  Empirical evidence on induced traffic , 1996 .

[7]  M. Wardman A REVIEW OF BRITISH EVIDENCE ON TIME AND SERVICE QUALITY VALUATIONS , 2001 .

[8]  Arjen Zoeteman Railway design and maintenance from a life-cycle cost perspective : a decision-support approach , 2004 .

[9]  B. Flyvbjerg,et al.  Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition , 2003 .

[10]  Kenneth A. Small,et al.  The Value of Time and Reliability: Measurement from a Value Pricing Experiment , 2001 .

[11]  Robert van den Brink,et al.  Comparing energy use and environmental performance of land transport modes , 2005 .

[12]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation , 2005, 1303.6654.

[13]  D. Pickrell A Desire Named Streetcar Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit Planning , 1992 .

[14]  Bent Flyvbjerg,et al.  Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning , 2004 .

[15]  Nick Eyre,et al.  FUEL AND LOCATION EFFECTS ON THE DAMAGE COSTS OF TRANSPORT EMISSIONS. , 1997 .

[16]  Peter W. Newton,et al.  Reshaping cities for a more sustainable future : exploring the link between urban form, air quality, energy and greenhouse gas emissions , 1997 .

[17]  Martin Wachs,et al.  Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy , 1990 .

[18]  H. Gunn,et al.  SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TRAVEL DEMAND, TRIP COST AND TRAVEL TIME , 2001 .