Acceptable Input: Using Decision Analysis to Guide Public Policy Deliberations

Multiparty deliberative processes have become a popular way to increase public participation in public policy choices. Their legitimacy depends on participants' ability, first, to understand the issues facing them and, then, to form and express their own positions on them. These tasks pose significant cognitive and emotional challenges. This paper argues that decision analysis, informed by behavioral decision research, offers procedures and standards for creating responsible deliberative processes. These involve (a) formal analysis of decisions, identifying the kernel of most relevant information, (b) communication procedures, recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of lay understanding, and (c) interactive elicitation methods, helping individuals to articulate the implications of their values for specific settings. A construct validity criterion assesses the extent to which the resulting valuations are properly sensitive to decision features. Feasible extensions of traditional decision analysis create opportunities to formalize the aspirations of participants and ensure that the intellectual content of deliberative processes is worthy of the political hopes vested in them.

[1]  W. Edwards The theory of decision making. , 1954, Psychological bulletin.

[2]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Illustrative Comparison of One Utility's Coal and Nuclear Choices , 1983, Oper. Res..

[3]  Jeremy R. Gray,et al.  Integration of Emotion and Cognitive Control , 2004 .

[4]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  A multi-channel stakeholder consultation process for transmission deregulation , 2003 .

[5]  S. Breyer Breaking the Vicious Circle: Toward Effective Risk Regulation , 1993 .

[6]  Baron,et al.  Protected Values , 1997, Virology.

[7]  B Fischhoff,et al.  A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I): Overview and Test Bed Development , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[8]  G. Loewenstein Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior , 1996 .

[9]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach , 2001 .

[10]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[11]  S. French Value‐focused thinking: A path to creative decision making, Keeney, R. L., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992, ISBN 0‐674‐93197‐1 , 1993 .

[12]  A. Tversky,et al.  Contingent weighting in judgment and choice , 1988 .

[13]  Dan G. Erwin,et al.  Understanding Risk , 2002, Inf. Secur. J. A Glob. Perspect..

[14]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A Methodology and an Application to Radon , 1992 .

[15]  Ross D. Shachter,et al.  Evaluating influence diagrams with decision circuits , 2007, UAI.

[16]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[17]  Thomas C. Beierle,et al.  The Quality of Stakeholder‐Based Decisions , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[18]  Jim Rossi,et al.  Participation Run Amok: The Deliberative Costs of Mass Participation for Agency Decisionmaking , 1997 .

[19]  J. Solterer,et al.  The Economics of Justice , 1991 .

[20]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Book Reviews : Scientific Opportunities and Public Needs: Improv ing Priority Setting and Public Input at the National Institutes of Health. Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1998, 136 pages, $26.00 , 1998 .

[21]  Graham T. F. Horn,et al.  Using Expert Judgment and Stakeholder Values to Evaluate Adaptive Management Options , 2004 .

[22]  D. Budescu,et al.  Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence , 1995 .

[23]  Lawrence D. Phillips,et al.  Requisite Decision Modelling: A Case Study , 1982 .

[24]  P. Slovic Perception of risk. , 1987, Science.

[25]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Conceptual Framework for Regulatory Benefits Assessment , 1986 .

[26]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[27]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Selecting Attributes to Measure the Achievement of Objectives , 2005, Oper. Res..

[28]  Robin Gregory,et al.  Valuing environmental resources: A constructive approach , 1993 .

[29]  Kristen Purcell,et al.  Public Participation and the Environment: Do We Know What Works? , 1999 .

[30]  John Forester,et al.  The Deliberative Practitioner: Encouraging Participatory Planning Processes , 1999 .

[31]  L. Cronbach,et al.  Construct validity in psychological tests. , 1955, Psychological bulletin.

[32]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[33]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Clinical Decision Analysis , 1980, Oper. Res..

[34]  Thomas Dietz,et al.  What is a Good Decision? Criteria for Environmental Decision Making , 2003 .

[35]  Cass R. Sunstein,et al.  Reinventing the Regulatory State , 1995 .

[36]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Regular ArticleProtected Values , 1997 .

[37]  B. Johnson Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach , 2002 .

[38]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. , 1992 .

[39]  Timothy L. McDaniels,et al.  Democratizing Risk Management: Successful Public Involvement in Local Water Management Decisions , 1999 .

[40]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Measuring values: A conceptual framework for interpreting transactions with special reference to contingent valuation of visibility , 1988 .

[41]  M. Meek,et al.  IT risk management , 2014 .

[42]  A. Tversky,et al.  Choices, Values, and Frames , 2000 .

[43]  R. Gregory,et al.  Creating policy alternatives using stakeholder values , 1994 .

[44]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Setting Policies for Consumer Communications a Behavioral Decision Research Approach , 2004 .

[45]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Precautionary principles: general definitions and specific applications to genetically modified organisms , 2002 .

[46]  Paul Slovic,et al.  The affect heuristic , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[47]  J. Payne,et al.  How People Respond to Contingent Valuation Questions: A Verbal Protocol Analysis of Willingness to Pay for an Environmental Regulation , 1994 .

[48]  R. Gregory,et al.  Incorporating Value Trade-offs into Community-Based Environmental Risk Decisions , 2002, Environmental Values.

[49]  Cass R. Sunstein,et al.  Assessing Punitive Damages... , 1997 .

[50]  Susan G. Hadden,et al.  Managing Environmental Risks in Texas, PRP 108 , 1994 .

[51]  Cass R. Sunstein,et al.  Assessing Punitive Damages (with Notes on Cognition and Valuation in Law) , 1998 .

[52]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Behavioral Decision Theory , 1977 .

[53]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Cognitive Processes in Stated Preference Methods , 2005 .

[54]  Robert T. Clemen,et al.  Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis , 1997 .

[55]  R. Gregory,et al.  Decision Aiding, Not Dispute Resolution: Creating Insights through Structured Environmental Decisions , 2001 .

[56]  Deborah A. Small,et al.  Recent EFFECTS OF FEAR AND ANGER ON PERCEIVED RISKS OF TERRORISMA National Field Experiment , 2015 .

[57]  Refractor Uncertainty , 2001, The Lancet.

[58]  L. F. Riley,et al.  Criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management in Canada , 1995 .

[59]  C. Sunstein Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law , 2001 .

[60]  Douglas A. Kysar,et al.  Taking behavioralism seriously: some evidence of market manipulation. , 1999, Harvard law review.

[61]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? , 1991 .

[62]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Well-being : the foundations of hedonic psychology , 1999 .

[63]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives , 1993 .

[64]  Lester B. Lave,et al.  Managing Environmental Risks , 1988 .

[65]  P. Slovic The Construction of Preference , 1995 .

[66]  Kevin J. Boyle,et al.  Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability , 1993 .

[67]  J. P. Peter,et al.  Behavioral Decision Making: a Comparison of Three Models , 1975 .

[68]  Robin Gregory,et al.  Decision structuring to alleviate embedding in environmental valuation , 2003 .

[69]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  The Evaluability Hypothesis: An Explanation for Preference Reversals between Joint and Separate Evaluations of Alternatives , 1996 .

[70]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction , 1992 .