A qualitative multi-attribute model for the selection of the private hydropower plant investments in Turkey: By foundation of the search results clustering engine (Carrot2), hydropower plant clustering, DEXi and DEXiTree

Purpose: The electricity demand in Turkey has been increasing for a while. Hydropower is one of the major electricity generation types to compensate this electricity demand in Turkey. Private investors (domestic and foreign) in the hydropower electricity generation sector have been looking for the most appropriate and satisfactory new private hydropower investment (PHPI) options and opportunities in Turkey. This study aims to present a qualitative multi-attribute decision making (MADM) model, that is easy, straightforward, and fast for the selection of the most satisfactory reasonable PHPI options during the very early investment stages (data and information poorness on projects). Design/methodology/approach: The data and information of the PHPI options was gathered from the official records on the official websites. A wide and deep literature review was conducted for the MADM models and for the hydropower industry. The attributes of the model were identified, selected, clustered and evaluated by the expert decision maker (EDM) opinion and by help of an open source search results clustering engine (Carrot 2 ) (helpful for also comprehension). The PHPI options were clustered according to their installed capacities main property to analyze the options in the most appropriate, decidable, informative, understandable and meaningful way. A simple clustering algorithm for the PHPI options was executed in the current study. A template model for the selection of the most satisfactory PHPI options was built in the DEXi (Decision EXpert for Education) and the DEXiTree software. Findings: The basic attributes for the selection of the PHPI options were presented and afterwards the aggregate attributes were defined by the bottom-up structuring for the early investment stages. The attributes were also analyzed by help of Carrot 2 . The most satisfactory PHPI options in Turkey in the big options data set were selected for each PHPI options cluster by the EDM evaluations in the DEXi. Originality/value: The recommended DEXi PHPI selection model by the search results clustering engine within a country wise case offered the possibility of easy, meaningful and satisfying continental or worldwide applications for the private investors and the international financial institutions such as the African Development Bank, or the World Bank was the main contribution.

[1]  Branko Kontić.  Strategic Environmental Consideration of Nuclear Power Through Comparative Evaluation of Energy Options , 2013 .

[2]  Benedetto Matarazzo,et al.  Preference ranking global frequencies in multicriterion analysis (Pragma) , 1988 .

[3]  Burak Omer Saracoglu,et al.  Selecting industrial investment locations in master plans of countries , 2013 .

[4]  Thana Boonyasirikul,et al.  Hydropower development priority using MCDM method , 2009 .

[5]  Shu-Hsien Liao,et al.  Ontology-based data mining approach implemented for sport marketing , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[6]  Marko Bohanec,et al.  DEX: An Expert System Shell for Decision Support • , 1990 .

[7]  Andrzej Bargiela,et al.  General fuzzy min-max neural network for clustering and classification , 2000, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks Learn. Syst..

[8]  Tyson John Weaver,et al.  Financial appraisal of operational offshore wind energy projects , 2012 .

[9]  Abdollah Hadi-Vencheh,et al.  A new fuzzy TOPSIS method based on left and right scores: An application for determining an industrial zone for dairy products factory , 2012, Appl. Soft Comput..

[10]  Ayah E. Abouelnaga,et al.  Optimum selection of an energy resource using fuzzy logic , 2009 .

[11]  Joseph L. Gastwirth,et al.  The use of the Lorenz curve, Gini index and related measures of relative inequality and uniformity in securities law , 2005 .

[12]  Chin-Tsai Lin,et al.  Developing a hierarchy relation with an expert decision analysis process for selecting the optimal resort type for a Taiwanese international resort park , 2007, Expert Systems with Applications.

[13]  T. Saaty.  How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process , 1990 .

[14]  Joydeep Ghosh,et al.  Cluster Ensembles --- A Knowledge Reuse Framework for Combining Multiple Partitions , 2002, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[15]  Branko Vucijak,et al.  Applicability of multicriteria decision aid to sustainable hydropower , 2013 .

[16]  Taweep Chaisomphob,et al.  Application of geographical information system to site selection of small run-of-river hydropower project by considering engineering/economic/environmental criteria and social impact , 2009 .

[17]  Chris T. Kiranoudis,et al.  Short-cut design of small hydroelectric plants , 2000 .

[18]  Chien-Chang Chou,et al.  A fuzzy MCDM method for solving marine transshipment container port selection problems , 2007, Appl. Math. Comput..

[19]  Cengiz Kahraman,et al.  Multicriteria renewable energy planning using an integrated fuzzy VIKOR & AHP methodology: The case of Istanbul , 2010 .

[20]  Marko Bohanec,et al.  A qualitative multi-attribute model for economic and ecological assessment of genetically modified crops , 2008 .

[21]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  Seven plus or minus two: a commentary on capacity limitations. , 1994, Psychological review.

[22]  Oliver Paish,et al.  Small hydro power: technology and current status , 2002 .

[23]  Somayeh Alizadeh,et al.  Using Data Mining for Learning and Clustering FCM , 2008 .

[24]  Peter Trebuňa,et al.  Mathematical Tools of Cluster Analysis , 2013 .

[25]  Miin-Shen Yang,et al.  A new clustering approach using data envelopment analysis , 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[26]  A. Mukherjee,et al.  An Expert System For Decision Making In Nonmonotonic Domain , 1991, TENCON '91. Region 10 International Conference on EC3-Energy, Computer, Communication and Control Systems.

[27]  Vladislav Rajkovic,et al.  Multi-Attribute Decision Modeling: Industrial Applications of DEX , 1999, Informatica.

[28]  P. Vincke,et al.  Note-A Preference Ranking Organisation Method: The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making , 1985 .

[29]  Borka Jerman-Blazic,et al.  Application of Multi-Attribute Decision Making Approach to Learning Management Systems Evaluation , 2007, J. Comput..

[30]  B. Boruff,et al.  Short-term memory capacity: magic number or magic spell? , 1986, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[31]  Vladislav Rajkovic,et al.  DEX Methodology: Three Decades of Qualitative Multi-Attribute Modeling , 2013, Informatica.

[32]  Saso Dzeroski,et al.  A Qualitative Decision-Support Model for Evaluating Researchers , 2007, Informatica.

[33]  S. Khennas,et al.  Rural Energy Services: A Handbook for Sustainable Energy Development , 1999 .

[34]  W. Kintsch,et al.  Introduction to the 100th anniversary issue of the Psychological Review , 1994 .

[35]  Miin-Shen Yang,et al.  Alternative c-means clustering algorithms , 2002, Pattern Recognit..

[36]  M. O. Lorenz,et al.  Methods of Measuring the Concentration of Wealth , 1905, Publications of the American Statistical Association.

[37]  Nani Gopal Das,et al.  GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation to land suitability modelling for giant prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) farming in Companigonj Upazila of Noakhali, Bangladesh , 2010 .

[38]  Sunil Kumar Singal,et al.  A review on electromechanical equipment applicable to small hydropower plants , 2012 .

[39]  Vladislav Rajkovic,et al.  Multiattribute Decisionmaking Using a Fuzzy Heuristic Approach , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[40]  G. A. Miller.  THE PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW THE MAGICAL NUMBER SEVEN, PLUS OR MINUS TWO: SOME LIMITS ON OUR CAPACITY FOR PROCESSING INFORMATION 1 , 1956 .

[41]  Audun Botterud,et al.  Use of the equivalent attribute technique in multi-criteria planning of local energy systems , 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[42]  Antoine Messéan,et al.  MASC, a qualitative multi-attribute decision model for ex ante assessment of the sustainability of cropping systems , 2009, Agronomy for Sustainable Development.

[43]  B. Roy.  The outranking approach and the foundations of electre methods , 1991 .