A Model to Estimate the Time Overrun Risk in Construction Projects

This paper aims to develop a model to find the expected percentage of time overrun (Delay Index) in a construction project, because time overrun is one of the major criteria which could affect the success of any construction projects. Therefore, it will be a serious issue in today’s construction. In view of that, six major groups causing the time delay in the project were identified from literature survey and opinions from the experts in construction sectors. A questionnaire was designed and the project managers were asked to fill the percentage of delay for each group related issues and the overall delay duration of the construction projects. Likewise, 112 completed project details were collected from various constructors. Then the collected data were analyzed using regression analysis. The results of a model were used to fine tune the relationship between the percentage of delay and the major group related issues that causes delay. This model estimates the expected percentage of the time overrun for a particular construction project during the planning stage itself. So that, the necessary action can be taken to minimize the delay and to complete the construction project on time and within budget.