Forecasting lava flow hazards during the 2006 Etna eruption: Using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model

The MAGFLOW cellular automata (CA) model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the time of the lava flow advance during the 2006 Etna eruption, leading to very plausible flow predictions. MAGFLOW is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the lava flow path over some time interval from the immediate future to a long-time forecast. Major discrepancies between the observed and simulated paths occurred in the early phase of the 2006 eruption due to an underestimation of the initial flow rate, and at the time of the overlapping with the 2004-2005 lava flow. Very good representations of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows were obtained when we adopt a time-varying effusion rate and include the 2004-2005 lava flow field in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography.

[1]  B. Behncke,et al.  Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy): New data from a GIS-based study , 2005 .

[2]  A. Harris,et al.  FLOWGO: a kinematic thermo-rheological model for lava flowing in a channel , 2001 .

[3]  G. M. Crisci,et al.  Lava Flow Simulation Bv A Discrete Cellular Model: First Implementation , 1986 .

[4]  G. Hulme,et al.  The Interpretation of Lava Flow Morphology , 1974 .

[5]  G. Wadge.  The variation of magma discharge during basaltic eruptions , 1981 .

[6]  Giovanni Macedonio,et al.  Numerical simulation of lava flows based on depth‐averaged equations , 2005 .

[7]  Db Dingwell,et al.  Viscosity of hydrous Etna basalt: implications for Plinian-style basaltic eruptions , 2002, Bulletin of Volcanology.

[8]  Ciro Del Negro,et al.  Modeling of the 2001 lava flow at Etna volcano by a Cellular Automata approach , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[9]  Giuseppe Luongo,et al.  Active lavas : monitoring and modelling , 1993 .

[10]  K. Ishihara,et al.  Numerical Simulation of Lava Flows on Some Volcanoes in Japan , 1990 .

[11]  Sho Sasaki,et al.  Simulating lava flows by an improved cellular automata method , 1997 .

[12]  P. Young,et al.  FLOWFRONT: simulation of a lava flow , 1990 .

[13]  Maurizio Ripepe,et al.  Pulsed lava effusion at Mount Etna during 2001 , 2004 .

[14]  Jonathan H. Fink,et al.  Lava Flows and Domes: Emplacement Mechanisms and Hazard Implications , 2011 .

[15]  L. Fortuna,et al.  Modelling lava flows by Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN): preliminary results , 2005 .

[16]  Andrew J. L. Harris,et al.  A chronology of the 1991 to 1993 Mount Etna eruption using advanced very high resolution radiometer data: Implications for real‐time thermal volcano monitoring , 1997 .

[17]  L. Fortuna,et al.  Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model , 2008 .

[18]  M. Dragoni,et al.  Downslope flow models of a Bingham liquid: Implications for lava flows , 1986 .

[19]  D. Rothery,et al.  A simple explanation for the space-based calculation of lava eruption rates , 2001 .

[20]  C. Mei,et al.  Slow flow of a Bingham fluid in a shallow channel of finite width , 2001, Journal of Fluid Mechanics.