구조방정식을 이용한 서울시 마을버스 노선별 사고 요인 분석

PURPOSES : This study was purposed to identify the relationships between route characteristics and accident characteristics using the data of 124 routes collected from 78 of the 136 Seoul Neighborhood bus companies. METHODS : A structural equation modeling technique was employed for the analysis. The following four factors that were determined to influence the characteristics of Neighborhood bus accidents were implemented: driver characteristics, route characteristics, driver working conditions, and the management conditions of each company. Additionally, the two dependent variables were set as vehicle to vehicle accidents and vehicle to pedestrian accidents. RESULTS : The results of factor analysis revealed that the management conditions of each company had a negative effect on the working conditions, and that driver characteristics had a negative influence on accident characteristics in the three models. The effects of three major factors such as route characteristics, management conditions of the company, and working conditions on vehicle-to-vehicle accidents were likely to be opposite to the influences on vehicle-to-pedestrian accidents. CONCLUSIONS : Through the analysis of these results, we identified the characteristic causes of Neighborhood bus accidents. Specifically, a driver with more experience is less likely to be involved in a Neighborhood bus accident, and a narrower road is associated with higher accident risk. These results can be used as a reference to improve route and safety management for Neighborhood buses. Furthermore, this study is expected to contribute to the establishment of improved strategies to effectively reduce the number of Neighborhood bus accidents.