Simulation of Vegetation Response to Modified Hydrologic Regimes: A Probabilistic Model Based on Niche Differentiation in a Floodplain Forest

This study was initiated to develop a model for predicting the relative impacts of alternative reservoir designs on vegetation in the backwater zone. The result is a probabilistic model based on niche differentiation in the floodplain forest. Existing methodologies provided estimates of the flooding regime modifications produced by variable backwater conditions during reservoir operation. The model is exercised, with hydrolic modifications as input, to simulate shifts in species distribution. The model has been applied to evaluate the impact of a proposed reservoir on the vegetation of Robert Allerton Part, a 607 km2 natural area in east—central Illinois. Comparison of simulations for three alternative plans for the reservoir provides a basis for distinguishing among them, and suggests that the impact of one would be substantially less than the other two.

[1]  S. Illichevsky.  The River as a Factor of Plant Distribution , 1933 .

[2]  W. B. Turrill,et al.  Flora of Illinois , 1945 .

[3]  L. Yeager.  Effect of permanent flooding in a river-bottom timber area , 1949 .

[4]  R. E. Mcdermott,et al.  Effects of Saturated Soil on Seedling Growth of Some Bottomland Hardwood Species , 1954 .

[5]  M. F. Buell,et al.  Flood Plain Forests of the Raritan River , 1955 .

[6]  J. T. Curtis,et al.  An Ordination of the Upland Forest Communities of Southern Wisconsin , 1957 .

[7]  W. A. Wistendahl.  The Flood Plain of the Raritan River, New Jersey , 1958 .

[8]  J. F. Hosner.  The Effects of Complete Inundation upon Seedlings of Six Bottomland Tree Species , 1958 .

[9]  R. Whittaker.  Vegetation of the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon and California , 1960 .

[10]  C. Briscoe.  Germination of Cherrybark and Nuttal Oak Acorns following Flooding , 1961 .

[11]  Alton A. Lindsey,et al.  Vegetation and Environment along the Wabash and Tippecanoe Rivers , 1961 .

[12]  W. E. Hart,et al.  A critique of current methods in hydrologic systems investigation , 1964 .

[13]  J. Williams,et al.  The Behaviour of Seeds in Soil: I. The Heterogeneity of Soil surfaces and its Role in Determining the Establishment of Plants from Seed , 1965 .

[14]  Robert H. Whittaker,et al.  Vegetation of the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona: A Gradient Analysis of the South Slope , 1965 .

[15]  W. Boggess,et al.  Composition of an Upland, Streamside Forest in Piatt County, Illinois , 1967 .

[16]  E. Wilson.  The species equilibrium. , 1969, Brookhaven symposia in biology.

[17]  C. Gill.  The flooding tolerance of woody species - a review. , 1970 .

[18]  E. Montroll,et al.  VI – Diversity and Stability in Ecological Systems , 1971 .

[19]  R. Macarthur.  Mathematical Ecology and Its Place among the Sciences. (Book Reviews: Geographical Ecology. Patterns in the Distribution of Species) , 1974 .

[20]  D. Hook,et al.  Aeration in Trees , 1972, Botanical Gazette.

[21]  D. Hook,et al.  Permeability of the Cambium to Air in Trees Adapted to Wet Habitats , 1972, Botanical Gazette.

[22]  D. Hook,et al.  Root Adaptations and Relative Flood Tolerance of Five Hardwood Species , 1973 .

[23]  C D Mobley,et al.  A systematic approach to ecosystems analysis. , 1973, Journal of theoretical biology.

[24]  Richard G. Wiegert,et al.  Simulation Models of Ecosystems , 1975 .