Water quality simulation modeling and uncertainty analysis for risk assessment and decision making

The usefulness of water quality simulation models for environmental management is explored with a focus on prediction uncertainty. Ecological risk and environmental analysis often involve scientific assessments that are highly uncertain. Still, environmental management decisions are being made, often with the support of a mathematical simulation model. In the area of pollutant transport and fate in surface waters, few of the extant simulation models have been rigorously evaluated. Limited observational data and limited scientific knowledge are often incompatible with the highly-detailed model structures of the large pollutant transport and fate models. Two examples are presented to illustrate data and knowledge weaknesses that are likely to undermine these large models for decision support. An alternative to comprehensive structured simulation models is proposed as a flexible approach to introduce science into the environmental risk assessment and decision making process.

[1]  Gerald T. Orlob,et al.  12 – Ecologic Simulation for Aquatic Environments , 1975 .

[2]  Kenneth H. Reckhow,et al.  Engineering Approaches for Lake Management, Volume 2: Mechanistic Modeling , 1983 .

[3]  Chikashi Sato,et al.  Processes, coefficients, and models for simulating toxic organics and heavy metals in surface waters , 1987 .

[4]  S. Norton,et al.  Framework for ecological risk assessment , 1992 .

[5]  Efraim Halfon,et al.  Error Analysis and Simulation of Mirex Behaviour in Lake Ontario , 1984 .

[6]  Kenneth H. Reckhow,et al.  A note on error analysis for a phosphorus retention model , 1979 .

[7]  M. B. Beck,et al.  Water quality modeling: A review of the analysis of uncertainty , 1987 .

[8]  Kenneth H. Reckhow,et al.  Bayesian Decision Support Using Environmental Transport-And-Fate Models , 1993 .

[9]  D. Bedard,et al.  Rapid assay for screening and characterizing microorganisms for the ability to degrade polychlorinated biphenyls , 1986, Applied and environmental microbiology.

[10]  M. B. Beck,et al.  Uncertainty and forecasting of water quality , 1983 .

[11]  Raymond P. Canale,et al.  Variance estimates for a dynamic eutrophication model of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron , 1981 .

[12]  G. van Straten,et al.  Uncertainty in the Parameters and Predictions of Phytoplankton Models , 1979 .

[13]  E. Madsen.  Determining in situ biodegradation , 1991 .

[14]  G. V. Straten,et al.  Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Parameters and Uncertainty in Phytoplankton Models , 1983 .

[15]  Tim A. Wool,et al.  WASP4, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model - model theory, user's manual, and programmer's guide , 1988 .

[16]  T. Smayda,et al.  EXPERIMENTAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE FLOTATION OF MARINE DIATOMS. I. THALASSIOSIRA CF. NANA, THALASSIOSIRA ROTULA AND NITZSCHIA SERIATA , 1965 .

[17]  J. Benndorf.  Editors: Beck, M. B., and G. Van Straten: Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality. Berlin — Heidelberg — New York — Tokyo, Springer Verlag, 1983, 386 S., 143 Abb., DM 78, US $ 33,70 , 1984 .

[18]  F. Reif,et al.  Fundamentals of Statistical and Thermal Physics , 1965 .

[19]  Kenneth H. Reckhow,et al.  Engineering approaches for lake management , 1983 .

[20]  Mark P. Brown,et al.  Anaerobic biodegradation of polychlorinated biphenyls in hudson river sediments and dredged sediments in clay encapsulation , 1989 .

[21]  R. Thomann,et al.  Principles of surface water quality modeling and control , 1987 .

[22]  Kenneth H. Reckhow,et al.  Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision making , 1994 .