Individual-Based Simulation Models of HIV Transmission: Reporting Quality and Recommendations

Background: Individual-based modeling is a growing technique in the HIV transmission and prevention literature, but insufficient attention has been paid to formally evaluate the quality of reporting in this field. We present reporting recommendations for individual-based models for HIV treatment and prevention, assess the quality of reporting in the existing literature, and comment on the contribution of this model type to HIV policy and prediction. Methods: We developed reporting recommendations for individual-based HIV transmission mathematical models, and through a systematic search, used them to evaluate the reporting in the existing literature. We identified papers that employed individual-based simulation models and were published in English prior to December 31, 2012. Articles were included if the models they employed simulated and tracked individuals, simulated HIV transmission between individuals in a particular population, and considered a particular treatment or prevention intervention. The papers were assessed with the reporting recommendations. Findings: Of 214 full text articles examined, 32 were included in the evaluation, representing 20 independent individual-based HIV treatment and prevention mathematical models. Manuscripts universally reported the objectives, context, and modeling conclusions in the context of the modeling assumptions and the model’s predictive capabilities, but the reporting of individual-based modeling methods, parameterization and calibration was variable. Six papers discussed the time step used and one discussed efforts to maintain internal validity in coding. Conclusion: Individual-based models represent detailed HIV transmission processes with the potential to contribute to inference and policy making for many different regions and populations. The rigor in reporting of assumptions, methods, and calibration of individual-based models focused on HIV transmission and prevention varies greatly. Higher standards for reporting of statistically rigorous calibration and model assumption testing need to be implemented to increase confidence in existing and future modeling results. Citation: Abuelezam NN, Rough K, Seage III GR (2013) Individual-Based Simulation Models of HIV Transmission: Reporting Quality and Recommendations. PLoS ONE 8(9): e75624. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075624 Editor: Caroline Colijn, Imperial College London, United Kingdom Received June 12, 2013; Accepted August 17, 2013; Published September 30, 2013 Copyright: © 2013 Abuelezam et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: The authors acknowledge funding from the following sources: NIAID AI 007433 (http://www.niaid.nih.gov/researchfunding/pages/default.aspx), and RO1MH087328-03 (http://grants.nih.gov/grants/about_grants.htm). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. * E-mail: nabuelezam@mail.harvard.edu

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