AFNI and Clustering: False Positive Rates Redux

In response to reports of inflated false positive rate (FPR) in FMRI group analysis tools, a series of replications, investigations, and software modifications were made to address this issue. While these investigations continue, significant progress has been made to adapt AFNI to fix such problems. Two separate lines of changes have been made. First, a long-tailed model for the spatial correlation of the FMRI noise characterized by autocorrelation function (ACF) was developed and implemented into the 3dClustSim tool for determining the cluster-size threshold to use for a given voxel-wise threshold. Second, the 3dttest++ program was modified to do randomization of the voxel-wise t-tests and then to feed those randomized t-statistic maps into 3dClustSim directly for cluster-size threshold determination-without any spatial model for the ACF. These approaches were tested with the Beijing subset of the FCON-1000 data collection. The first approach shows markedly improved (reduced) FPR, but in many cases is still above the nominal 5%. The second approach shows FPRs clustered tightly about 5% across all per-voxel p-value thresholds ≤ 0.01. If t-tests from a univariate GLM are adequate for the group analysis in question, the second approach is what the AFNI group currently recommends for thresholding. If more complex per-voxel statistical analyses are required (where permutation/randomization is impracticable), then our current recommendation is to use the new ACF modeling approach coupled with a per-voxel p-threshold of 0.001 or below. Simulations were also repeated with the now infamously “buggy” version of 3dClustSim: the effect of the bug on FPRs was minimal (of order a few percent).