Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty

Preface 1. Bounded and Rational 2. Fast and Frugal heuristics 3. Rules of Thumb in Animals and Humans 4. I Think, Therefore I Err 5. Striking a Blow for Sanity in Theories of Rationality 6. Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire 7. What's in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive Theories 8. "A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow" 9. Simple Tools for Understanding Risks: From Innumeracy to Insight 10. The Evolution of Statistical Thinking 11. Mindless Statistics 12. Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems 13. In the year 2054" Innumeracy Defeated References Subject Index Name index

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