Parameterization of the InVEST Crop Pollination Model to spatially predict abundance of wild blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton) native bee pollinators in Maine, USA

Abstract Non-native honeybees historically have been managed for crop pollination, however, recent population declines draw attention to pollination services provided by native bees. We applied the InVEST Crop Pollination model, developed to predict native bee abundance from habitat resources, in Maine's wild blueberry crop landscape. We evaluated model performance with parameters informed by four approaches: 1) expert opinion; 2) sensitivity analysis; 3) sensitivity analysis informed model optimization; and, 4) simulated annealing (uninformed) model optimization. Uninformed optimization improved model performance by 29% compared to expert opinion-informed model, while sensitivity-analysis informed optimization improved model performance by 54%. This suggests that expert opinion may not result in the best parameter values for the InVEST model. The proportion of deciduous/mixed forest within 2000 m of a blueberry field also reliably predicted native bee abundance in blueberry fields, however, the InVEST model provides an efficient tool to estimate bee abundance beyond the field perimeter.

[1]  James Regetz,et al.  Landscape effects on crop pollination services: are there general patterns? , 2008, Ecology letters.

[2]  J. Cane.  Habitat Fragmentation and Native Bees: a Premature Verdict? , 2001 .

[3]  R. Isaacs,et al.  Stability of pollination services decreases with isolation from natural areas despite honey bee visits. , 2011, Ecology letters.

[4]  M. Aizen,et al.  Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[5]  J. Biesmeijer,et al.  Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. , 2010, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[6]  J. Elith,et al.  Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time , 2009 .

[7]  F. Drummond,et al.  A global review of arthropod-mediated ecosystem-services in Vaccinium berry agroecosystems , 2014 .

[8]  C. Michener.  The Bionomics of a Primitively Social Bee, Lasioglossum Versatum (Hymenoptera: Halictidae) , 1966 .

[9]  M. Austin.  Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling , 2002 .

[10]  Alana L. Burley,et al.  A global quantitative synthesis of local and landscape effects on wild bee pollinators in agroecosystems. , 2013, Ecology letters.

[11]  G. Daily,et al.  Optimal design of agricultural landscapes for pollination services , 2008 .

[12]  W. Thuiller,et al.  Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. , 2005, Ecology letters.

[13]  Hugh P. Possingham,et al.  How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata , 2009 .

[14]  Thomas V. Pollet,et al.  Going That Extra Mile: Individuals Travel Further to Maintain Face-to-Face Contact with Highly Related Kin than with Less Related Kin , 2013, PloS one.

[15]  M. Fortin,et al.  Use of resistance surfaces for landscape genetic studies: considerations for parameterization and analysis , 2010, Molecular ecology.

[16]  R. Winfree,et al.  Pollinator body size mediates the scale at which land use drives crop pollination services , 2014 .

[17]  Claire Kremen,et al.  Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes. , 2009, Annals of botany.

[18]  D. Yarborough.  Wild blueberry culture in Maine , 1996 .

[19]  Grazia Zulian,et al.  Linking Land Cover Data and Crop Yields for Mapping and Assessment of Pollination Services in Europe , 2013 .

[20]  N. Charney.  Evaluating expert opinion and spatial scale in an amphibian model , 2012 .

[21]  Chris J. Johnson,et al.  Mapping uncertainty: sensitivity of wildlife habitat ratings to expert opinion , 2004 .

[22]  Taylor H. Ricketts,et al.  Crop pollination services , 2011 .

[23]  C. D. Gelatt,et al.  Optimization by Simulated Annealing , 1983, Science.

[24]  E. Asare,et al.  Grower perceptions of native pollinators and pollination strategies in the lowbush blueberry industry , 2013, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

[25]  C. Michener.  The Bees of the World , 2000 .

[26]  Kevin McGarigal,et al.  A Resistant‐Kernel Model of Connectivity for Amphibians that Breed in Vernal Pools , 2007, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[27]  S. Aarons,et al.  The role of riparian buffer management in reducing off-site impacts from grazed dairy systems , 2012, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

[28]  Neal M. Williams,et al.  The area requirements of an ecosystem service: crop pollination by native bee communities in California , 2004 .

[29]  J. Cane,et al.  Foraging Ecology of the Bee Habropoda laboriosa (Hymenoptera: Anthophoridae), an Oligolege of Blueberries (Ericaceae: Vaccinium) in the Southeastern United States , 1988 .

[30]  Teja Tscharntke,et al.  SCALE‐DEPENDENT EFFECTS OF LANDSCAPE CONTEXT ON THREE POLLINATOR GUILDS , 2002 .

[31]  N. Aebischer,et al.  Research into action: grey partridge conservation as a case study , 2014 .

[32]  E. A. Osgood.  TB59: Soil Characteristics of Nesting Sites of Solitary Bees Associated with the Low-Bush Blueberry in Maine , 1972 .

[33]  J. Cane.  Soils of ground-nesting bees (Hymneoptera: Apoidea): Texture, moisture, cell depth and climate , 1991 .

[34]  K. Mengersen,et al.  Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science , 2012, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[35]  William L. Goffe,et al.  SIMANN: FORTRAN module to perform Global Optimization of Statistical Functions with Simulated Annealing , 1992 .

[36]  P. Kevan,et al.  Landscape effects of forest loss in a pollination system , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[37]  Travis E. Oliphant,et al.  Python for Scientific Computing , 2007, Computing in Science & Engineering.

[38]  J. Pettis,et al.  Coordinated responses to honey bee decline in the USA , 2010, Apidologie.

[39]  F. Drummond,et al.  Abundance and Diversity of Wild Bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) Found in Lowbush Blueberry Growing Regions of Downeast Maine , 2015, Environmental entomology.

[40]  Neal M. Williams,et al.  Crop pollination from native bees at risk from agricultural intensification , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[41]  J. Ascher,et al.  Forested Landscapes Promote Richness and Abundance of Native Bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea: Anthophila) in Wisconsin Apple Orchards , 2011, Environmental entomology.

[42]  J. Biesmeijer,et al.  Species Distribution Models for Crop Pollination: A Modelling Framework Applied to Great Britain , 2013, PloS one.

[43]  Sarah S. Greenleaf,et al.  Bee foraging ranges and their relationship to body size , 2007, Oecologia.

[44]  G. Patrício-Roberto,et al.  Aspects of Landscape and Pollinators—What is Important to Bee Conservation? , 2014 .

[45]  Brendan A. Wintle,et al.  Quantifying variance components in ecological models based on expert opinion , 2011 .