Examining the temperature dependence of ethanol (E85) versus gasoline emissions on air pollution with a largely-explicit chemical mechanism

Abstract The increased use of ethanol in transportation fuels warrants an investigation of its consequences. An important component of such an investigation is the temperature dependence of ethanol and gasoline exhaust chemistry. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM, version 3.1, LEEDS University) with the SMVGEAR II chemical ordinary differential solver to provide the speed necessary to simulate complex chemistry to examine such effects. The MCM has over 13,500 organic reactions and 4600 species. SMVGEAR II is a sparse-matrix Gear solver that reduces the computation time significantly while maintaining any specified accuracy. Although we use a box model for this study, we determine and demonstrate in a separate study that the speed of the MCM with SMVGEAR II allows the MCM to be modeled in 3-dimensions. We also verified the accuracy of the model in comparison with smog chamber data. We then use the model with species-resolved tailpipe emissions data for E85 (15% gasoline, 85% ethanol fuel blend) and gasoline vehicles to compare the impact of each on nitrogen oxides, organic gases, and ozone as a function of ambient temperature and background concentrations, using Los Angeles in 2020 as a base case. We use two different emissions sets – one is a compilation of exhaust and evaporative data taken near 24 °C and the other from exhaust data taken at −7 °C – to determine how atmospheric chemistry and emissions are affected by temperature. We include diurnal effects by examining two day scenarios. We find that, accounting for chemistry and dilution alone, the average ozone concentrations through the range of temperatures tested are higher with E85 than with gasoline by ∼7 part per billion volume (ppbv) at higher temperatures (summer conditions) to ∼39 ppbv at low temperatures and low sunlight (winter conditions) for an area with a high nitrogen oxide (NOx) to non-methane organic gas (NMOG) ratio. The results suggest that E85's effect on health through ozone formation becomes increasingly more significant relative to gasoline at colder temperatures due to the change in exhaust emission composition at lower temperatures. Acetaldehyde and formaldehyde concentrations are also much higher with E85 at cold temperatures, which is a concern because both are considered to be carcinogens. These could have implications for wintertime use of E85. Peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), another air pollutant of concern, increases with E85 by 0.3–8 ppbv. The sensitivity of the results to box size, initial background concentrations, background emissions, and water vapor were also examined.