Incorporating fuzzy weather-related outages in transmission system reliability assessment

Fuzzy models for weather-related outages of overhead lines and a combined probabilistic and fuzzy technique for transmission system reliability assessment are presented. The region-divided weather states are modelled using a probability approach. This approach and the fuzzy models of weather-related outages are combined and incorporated into a Monte Carlo simulation procedure of transmission system reliability assessment to evaluate membership functions and mean values of reliability indices. The reliability test system is used to demonstrate an application of the proposed models and method. The membership functions of reliability indices provide a wider insight into the fuzziness of weather effects, which cannot be modelled by traditional probability concepts.

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