Novel Machine Learning Methods For Modeling Time-To-Event Data

NOVEL MACHINE LEARNING METHODS FOR MODELING TIME-TO-EVENT DATA by Bhanukiran Vinzamuri August 2016 Advisor: Dr. Chandan K. Reddy Major: Computer Science Degree: Doctor of Philosophy Predicting time-to-event from longitudinal data where different events occur at different time points is an extremely important problem in several domains such as healthcare, economics, social networks and seismology, to name a few. A unique challenge in this problem involves building predictive models from right censored data (also called as survival data). This is a phenomenon where instances whose event of interest are not yet observed within a given observation time window and are considered to be right censored. Effective models for predicting time-to-event labels from such right censored data with good accuracy can have a significant impact in these domains. However, existing methods in the literature cannot capture various complexities present in real-world survival data such as feature groups and intra and inter-event correlations. To address such challenges, we briefly summarize the major contributions of the methods proposed here as (i) modeling intra-event correlations in survival data using structured sparsity-based regularizers, (ii) learning novel representations for survival data by inferring inter-event and intra-event correlations, (iii) extending linear regression-based methods to learn predictive models from right censored data and (iv) identifying censored instances and events from the data which are contributing extensively to learning a model with lesser number of training instances using active learning. We present

[1]  Changbao Wu,et al.  Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resampling Methods in Regression Analysis , 1986 .

[2]  Hao Helen Zhang,et al.  Adaptive Lasso for Cox's proportional hazards model , 2007 .

[3]  Elia Biganzoli,et al.  A general framework for neural network models on censored survival data , 2002, Neural Networks.

[4]  György J. Simon,et al.  TR 15-016 Mining Electronic Health Records ( EHR ) : A Survey , 2015 .

[5]  Robert Tibshirani,et al.  Spectral Regularization Algorithms for Learning Large Incomplete Matrices , 2010, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[6]  Svetha Venkatesh,et al.  Stabilizing Sparse Cox Model Using Statistic and Semantic Structures in Electronic Medical Records , 2015, PAKDD.

[7]  Pascal Vincent,et al.  Representation Learning: A Review and New Perspectives , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[8]  Jieping Ye,et al.  Sparse methods for biomedical data , 2012, SKDD.

[9]  Matthias Schmid,et al.  Boosting the Concordance Index for Survival Data – A Unified Framework To Derive and Evaluate Biomarker Combinations , 2013, PloS one.

[10]  J. Klein,et al.  Survival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data , 1997 .

[11]  H. Bondell,et al.  Simultaneous Regression Shrinkage, Variable Selection, and Supervised Clustering of Predictors with OSCAR , 2008, Biometrics.

[12]  Jianguo Sun,et al.  Survival prediction and variable selection with simultaneous shrinkage and grouping priors , 2015, Stat. Anal. Data Min..

[13]  Amanda H. Salanitro,et al.  Risk prediction models for hospital readmission: a systematic review. , 2011, JAMA.

[14]  P. Sasieni Cox Regression Model , 2005 .

[15]  Maja Pohar Perme,et al.  Pseudo-observations in survival analysis , 2010, Statistical methods in medical research.

[16]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Sparse inverse covariance estimation with the graphical lasso. , 2008, Biostatistics.

[17]  Baolin Wu,et al.  Network-based Survival Analysis Reveals Subnetwork Signatures for Predicting Outcomes of Ovarian Cancer Treatment , 2013, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[18]  Stephen P. Boyd,et al.  Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers , 2011, Found. Trends Mach. Learn..

[19]  Trevor Hastie,et al.  Regularization Paths for Cox's Proportional Hazards Model via Coordinate Descent. , 2011, Journal of statistical software.

[20]  J. Spertus,et al.  Relation of worsened renal function during hospitalization for heart failure to long-term outcomes and rehospitalization. , 2011, The American journal of cardiology.

[21]  Wenjiang J. Fu Penalized Regressions: The Bridge versus the Lasso , 1998 .

[22]  Mingxuan Sun,et al.  A hazard based approach to user return time prediction , 2014, KDD.

[23]  Paul Tseng,et al.  A coordinate gradient descent method for nonsmooth separable minimization , 2008, Math. Program..

[24]  Jieping Ye,et al.  Canonical Correlation Analysis for Multilabel Classification: A Least-Squares Formulation, Extensions, and Analysis , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[25]  C. Yancy,et al.  Relationship between early physician follow-up and 30-day readmission among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for heart failure. , 2010, JAMA.

[26]  Michael A. Saunders,et al.  Proximal Newton-type methods for convex optimization , 2012, NIPS.

[27]  Xi Chen,et al.  Accelerated Gradient Method for Multi-task Sparse Learning Problem , 2009, 2009 Ninth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining.

[28]  David W. Hosmer,et al.  Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time-to-Event Data , 2008 .

[29]  Yan Li,et al.  Project Success Prediction in Crowdfunding Environments , 2016, WSDM.

[30]  R. Tibshirani The lasso method for variable selection in the Cox model. , 1997, Statistics in medicine.

[31]  P. Schmidt,et al.  Survival analysis: A survey , 1991 .

[32]  C. O’Brien Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations , 2016 .

[33]  J. M. Taylor,et al.  Survival Analysis Using Auxiliary Variables Via Multiple Imputation, with Application to AIDS Clinical Trial Data , 2002, Biometrics.

[34]  John Shawe-Taylor,et al.  Canonical Correlation Analysis: An Overview with Application to Learning Methods , 2004, Neural Computation.

[35]  Fei Wang,et al.  Supervised patient similarity measure of heterogeneous patient records , 2012, SKDD.

[36]  Jaegul Choo,et al.  Project Recommendation Using Heterogeneous Traits in Crowdfunding , 2021, ICWSM.

[37]  Xiao-Li Meng,et al.  Maximum likelihood estimation via the ECM algorithm: A general framework , 1993 .

[38]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Prediction by Supervised Principal Components , 2006 .

[39]  Hemant Ishwaran,et al.  Random Survival Forests , 2008, Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online.

[40]  C. Asher,et al.  Predictors of 30‐Day Readmission in Patients Hospitalized With Decompensated Heart Failure , 2013, Clinical cardiology.

[41]  W Pan,et al.  A Multiple Imputation Approach to Cox Regression with Interval‐Censored Data , 2000, Biometrics.

[42]  Faisal M. Khan,et al.  Support Vector Regression for Censored Data (SVRc): A Novel Tool for Survival Analysis , 2008, 2008 Eighth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining.

[43]  Rui Feng,et al.  NETWORK-REGULARIZED HIGH-DIMENSIONAL COX REGRESSION FOR ANALYSIS OF GENOMIC DATA. , 2014, Statistica Sinica.

[44]  Harlan M Krumholz,et al.  Statistical models and patient predictors of readmission for heart failure: a systematic review. , 2008, Archives of internal medicine.

[45]  J. V. Ryzin,et al.  Regression Analysis with Randomly Right-Censored Data , 1981 .

[46]  Bhanukiran Vinzamuri,et al.  Constrained elastic net based knowledge transfer for healthcare information exchange , 2014, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[47]  Anne-Laure Boulesteix,et al.  Survival prediction using gene expression data: A review and comparison , 2009, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[48]  Charu C. Aggarwal,et al.  Healthcare Data Analytics , 2015 .

[49]  Bin Nan,et al.  Doubly Penalized Buckley–James Method for Survival Data with High‐Dimensional Covariates , 2008, Biometrics.

[50]  Yan Li,et al.  A Review of Clinical Prediction Models , 2015, Healthcare Data Analytics.

[51]  Jieping Ye,et al.  Extracting shared subspace for multi-label classification , 2008, KDD.

[52]  Genevera I. Allen,et al.  TRANSPOSABLE REGULARIZED COVARIANCE MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO MISSING DATA IMPUTATION. , 2009, The annals of applied statistics.

[53]  P. Green On Use of the EM Algorithm for Penalized Likelihood Estimation , 1990 .

[54]  Julien Mairal,et al.  Structured sparsity through convex optimization , 2011, ArXiv.

[55]  Bhanukiran Vinzamuri,et al.  Cox Regression with Correlation Based Regularization for Electronic Health Records , 2013, 2013 IEEE 13th International Conference on Data Mining.

[56]  J. Ibrahim,et al.  Handbook of survival analysis , 2014 .

[57]  Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis,et al.  Estimating the Completion Time of Crowdsourced Tasks Using Survival Analysis Models , 2011 .

[58]  Peter Bühlmann,et al.  Missing values: sparse inverse covariance estimation and an extension to sparse regression , 2009, Statistics and Computing.

[59]  Naren Ramakrishnan,et al.  Experiences with mining temporal event sequences from electronic medical records: initial successes and some challenges , 2011, KDD.

[60]  B. Nan,et al.  Survival Analysis with High-Dimensional Covariates , 2010 .

[61]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Sparsity and smoothness via the fused lasso , 2005 .

[62]  Gediminas Adomavicius,et al.  A Naive Bayes machine learning approach to risk prediction using censored, time‐to‐event data , 2014, Statistics in medicine.

[63]  Jieping Ye,et al.  Feature grouping and selection over an undirected graph , 2012, KDD.

[64]  I. James,et al.  Linear regression with censored data , 1979 .

[65]  Lee-Jen Wei,et al.  The accelerated failure time model: a useful alternative to the Cox regression model in survival analysis. , 1992, Statistics in medicine.

[66]  Chandan K. Reddy,et al.  Joint Impact of Clinical and Behavioral Variables on the Risk of Unplanned Readmission and Death after a Heart Failure Hospitalization , 2015, PloS one.