Eualuation of Nonlinear Optimization for Scheduling of follow-up cystoscopies to Detect Recurrent Bladder Cancer

Standard recommendations for patients who have had superficial bladder cancer are in spection by cystoscopy quarterly for a year or two after tumor removal, then half-yearly and yearly. The authors assessed the potential for improvement in scheduling cystoscopies according to probabilistic optimization techniques. Eight hypothetical practices were created, based on retrospective analysis of 918 bladder-cancer-patient charts. Standard and alter native recommendations for the interval to next cystoscopy were compared. The alternatives were derived from patient-specific predictions of future tumor risks (based on the patient's prior recurrence rate and tumor stage and grade) and a nonlinear optimization approach to allocation of the same number of cystoscopies as were available for standard follow-up. The optimization proposed longer intervals between visits for low-risk patients and shorter inter vals for high-risk patients. Overall, optimization reduced expected tumor detection delays by 30%, from 12.6 to 8.7 weeks. When optimization intervals were shorter than standard, cancer was found more often at subsequent cystoscopies (34% vs 27%, p < 0.05), suggesting that the optimization was a better predictor of cancer recurrence. If reduction in tumor-detection delay is the goal of follow-up for recurrent cancers, then urologists can improve monitoring by using probabilistic optimization methods for scheduling cystoscopies. Further understand ing of the accuracy of predictive models for bladder-cancer recurrence rates is desirable. Subsequently, the optimization method developed here may be tested prospectively. Key words: bladder cancer; nonlinear optimization; operations research; follow-up studies; mon itoring; cystoscopy; health services; decision analysis. (Med Decis Making 1991;11:240- 248)