An Optimization Technique for the Budworm Forest-Pest Model

As part of a multidisciplinary approach to studying the budworm-forest system at IIASA, the methodology group investigated the possibilities of development of an optimization model. In this report we describe our work and the results obtained so far. Frequently, as the investigation proceeded, new constraints were fed back to us; this required a change in direction of our efforts, or a postponement of some approach to a later time, when we could count on a vital piece of software. Here we will loosely trace the evolution of our efforts in order to motivate each step and to point out what further work might be done on the loose ends. Also, as requested by the ecology group, we will give an exposition on the dynamic programming technique used and its interaction with the ecological model.