Predicting the volume of comments on online news stories

On-line news agents provide commenting facilities for readers to express their views with regard to news stories. The number of user supplied comments on a news article may be indicative of its importance or impact. We report on exploratory work that predicts the comment volume of news articles prior to publication using five feature sets. We address the prediction task as a two stage classification task: a binary classification identifies articles with the potential to receive comments, and a second binary classification receives the output from the first step to label articles "low" or "high" comment volume. The results show solid performance for the former task, while performance degrades for the latter.

[1]  M. de Rijke,et al.  Exploiting Surface Features for the Prediction of Podcast Preference , 2009, ECIR.

[2]  SzaboGabor,et al.  Predicting the popularity of online content , 2010 .

[3]  Gilad Mishne,et al.  Capturing Global Mood Levels using Blog Posts , 2006, AAAI Spring Symposium: Computational Approaches to Analyzing Weblogs.

[4]  Fernando Pereira,et al.  Reading the Markets: Forecasting Public Opinion of Political Candidates by News Analysis , 2008, COLING.

[5]  Vicenç Gómez,et al.  Description and Prediction of Slashdot Activity , 2007, 2007 Latin American Web Conference (LA-WEB 2007).

[6]  Josep Blat,et al.  Homogeneous Temporal Activity Patterns in a Large Online Communication Space , 2007, SAW.

[7]  Deborah S. Chung,et al.  Interactive Features of Online Newspapers: Identifying Patterns and Predicting Use of Engaged Readers , 2008, J. Comput. Mediat. Commun..

[8]  Maarten de Rijke,et al.  Extracting the discussion structure in comments on news-articles , 2007, WIDM '07.

[9]  Gilad Mishne,et al.  Leave a Reply: An Analysis of Weblog Comments , 2006 .

[10]  Ramanathan V. Guha,et al.  The predictive power of online chatter , 2005, KDD '05.

[11]  David L. Altheide Qualitative Media Analysis , 1996 .

[12]  Munmun De Choudhury,et al.  Can blog communication dynamics be correlated with stock market activity? , 2008, Hypertext.

[13]  Gilad Mishne,et al.  A Study of Blog Search , 2006, ECIR.

[14]  Bernardo A. Huberman,et al.  Predicting the popularity of online content , 2008, Commun. ACM.