A proposed stock assessment method and its application to bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus

Monte Carlo simulation from probability distributions is often favored as a means of quantifying the uncertainty in the results of a popula- tion analysis. Observed data are com- bined with simulations from a popula- tion model by using subjective distri- butions for model parameters for which no data are available. The results from such methods can unfortunately be in- accurate unless care is taken in the combination of these simulations and the observed data. A Monte Carlo method was proposed at the 1996 meet- ing of the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission for the assessment of the Bering-Chukchi- Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. We show that this method is potentially inaccurate, and as such, it appears to be unsuited to the bowhead application and thus possibly to other similarly structured management problems.