The National Football League Combine: A Reliable Predictor of Draft Status?

The performance of 326 collegiate football players attending the 2000 National Football League combine was studied to determine whether draft status could be predicted from performance measurements. The combine measured height and weight along with 9 performance tests: 225-lb bench press test, 10-yd dash, 20-yd dash, 40-yd dash, 20-yd proagility shuttle, 60-yd shuttle, 3-cone drill, broad jump, and vertical jump. Prediction equations were generated for 7 position categories with varying degrees of accuracy—running backs (RBs), r2 = 1.00; wide receivers (WRs), r2 = 1.00; offensive linemen, r2 = 0.70; defensive linemen, r2 = 0.59; defensive backs (DBs), r2 = 1.00; linebackers, r2 = 0.22; and quarterbacks, r2 = 0.84. The successes of the prediction equations are related to the ability of the individual tests to assess the necessary skills for each position. This study concludes that the combine can be used to accurately predict draft status of RBs, WRs, and DBs. The equations can also be used as a good to fair estimate for other positions.

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