The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions

Abstract This chapter surveys the dosage breeding theory pioneered by Vuilliers, Varola, and Roman with major emphasis on two top classic three-year-old thoroughbred races, namely, the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. Run at 1¼ mi and 1½ mi respectively, they typically are at least ⅛ and ¼ mi longer than any of the horses has ever raced before. This extra distance, combined with the large fields (especially in the Derby), make these two races a difficult test of stamina for horses this young. Bettors are also challenged because there is no direct evidence of whether a horse has the stamina to compete effectively at these distances. The informational content of the publicly available, pedigree-based measure of stamina, the Dosage Index, is used with simple performance measures to identify a semi-strong-form inefficiency. Statistically significant profits, net of transaction costs, could have been achieved during 1946–2006. This can be compared to the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness, run at 13 16 , where the Dosage Index provided no advantage. JEL Classifications: G10, G14