Demographic Change and Immigration in Age-structured Epidemic Models

Immigration might be a remedy against the stress that low fertility causes to demographic and welfare systems. Sustained immigration, however, can alter both the demographic and epidemiological profiles of the receiving population. An age-structured SIR (susceptible-infective-recovered) model with realistic immigration under conditions of below replacement fertility is studied. Equilibria and threshold phenomena are characterized. The immigration profile and the epidemiological features of immigrants affect the reproduction number and the force of infection in the receiving population. Finally, an illustration is given, showing the potential effects of immigration for rubella control in Italy, by considering how the age profile of immigration influences the reproduction number of the disease.

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