WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURE

Weather plays an important role in agricultural production. It has a profound influence on crop growth, development and yields; on the incidence of pests and diseases; on water needs; and on fertilizer requirements. This is due to differences in nutrient mobilization as a result of water stresses, as well as the timeliness and effectiveness of preventive measures and cultural operations with crops. Weather aberrations may cause physical damage to crops and soil erosion. The quality of crop produce during movement from field to storage and transport to market depends on weather. Bad weather may affect the quality of produce during transport, and the viability and vigour of seeds and planting material during storage.

[1]  M. Glantz,et al.  Climate Variability, Climate Change and Fisheries. , 1993 .

[2]  W. Giesecke,et al.  Heat stress in dairy cattle and other livestock under southern African conditions. I. Temperature-humidity index mean values during the four main seasons. , 1990, The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research.

[3]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction , 1999 .

[4]  R. Stull An Introduction to Boundary Layer Meteorology , 1988 .

[5]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting — II. Calibration and combination , 2005 .

[6]  Carla Roncoli,et al.  Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers responses to climate predictions , 2006 .

[7]  P. Cantelaube,et al.  Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe , 2005 .

[8]  Michel Mouchart,et al.  Clustered Panel Data Models: An Efficient Approach for Nowcasting from Poor Data , 2003 .

[9]  Ákos Horváth,et al.  Severe storms and nowcasting in the Carpathian basin , 2003 .

[10]  H. Gallee Mesoscale Atmospheric Circulations over the Southwestern Ross Sea Sector, Antarctica , 1996 .

[11]  Simone Orlandini,et al.  Modelling leaf wetness duration and downy mildew simulation on grapevine in Italy , 2005 .

[12]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles , 2005 .

[13]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Use of an Analogue Procedure to Formulate Objective Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in The Netherlands , 1983 .

[14]  F.J Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[15]  D. Rijks,et al.  The clients for agrometeorological information , 2000 .

[17]  K. Browning,et al.  Air motion and precipitation growth in frontal systems , 1980 .

[18]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-II , 2005 .

[19]  J. Kapetsky Present applications and future needs of meteorological and climatological data in inland fisheries and aquaculture , 2000 .

[20]  K. Harmsen,et al.  Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Agricultural Meteorology , 2004 .

[21]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction , 2005 .

[22]  T. Palmer,et al.  Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) , 2004 .

[23]  R. Olea Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation By Pierre Goovaerts, Oxford University Press, Applied Geostatistics Series, 1997, 483 p., hardcover, $65 (U.S.), ISBN 0-19-511538-4 , 1999 .

[24]  D. Guedalia,et al.  Numerical forecasting of radiation fog , 1994 .

[25]  B. Macpherson Operational experience with assimilation of rainfall datain the Met Office Mesoscale model , 2001 .

[26]  D. Stephenson,et al.  A Bayesian approach for multi‐model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America , 2006 .

[27]  Mike Harrison,et al.  The Development of Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting , 2005 .

[28]  Peter S. Ray,et al.  Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting , 1986 .

[29]  James A. Hansen Accounting for Model Error in Ensemble-Based State Estimation and Forecasting , 2002 .

[30]  Sabine M. Marx,et al.  The Role of Climate Perceptions, Expectations, and Forecasts in Farmer Decision Making: The Argentine Pampas and South Florida: Final Report of an IRI Seed Grant Project , 2004 .

[31]  Holger Meinke,et al.  Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis , 2006 .

[32]  William D. Batchelor,et al.  Web-based Soybean Yield Simulation Model to Analyze the Effects of Interacting Yield-Limiting Factors , 2003 .

[33]  J. M. Bruce,et al.  12 – VENTILATION AND TEMPERATURE CONTROL CRITERIA FOR PIGS , 1981 .

[34]  Lars Otto Naess,et al.  Is information enough? : user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa : report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC adaptation to climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa, phase II , 2000 .

[35]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[36]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications , 1998 .

[37]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[38]  E. Kalnay,et al.  Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method , 1997 .

[39]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[40]  Gordon B. Bonan,et al.  Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications , 2002 .

[41]  Mannava V. K. Sivakumar,et al.  Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management , 2000 .

[42]  Loyd R. Stone,et al.  Comparative Water Use Characteristics of Six Row Crops , 1988 .

[43]  C. Boyd,et al.  Pond Aquaculture Water Quality Management , 1998, Springer US.

[44]  Coleen Vogel,et al.  Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies , 2006 .

[45]  Albert Weiss,et al.  Communicating agrometeorological information to farming communities. , 2000 .

[46]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting — I. Basic concept , 2005 .

[47]  Jorge Maia,et al.  Supporting Irrigation Management Strategies trough the Web: an application to the Portuguese Alentejo region , 2005 .

[48]  H. Meinke,et al.  Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change In Agricultural Planning And Operations , 2005 .

[49]  C. Stigter The establishment of needs for climate forecasts and other agromet information for agriculture by local, national and regional decision-makers and users communities , 2005 .

[50]  R. Daley Atmospheric Data Analysis , 1991 .

[51]  A. Brereton,et al.  Agrometeorology of grass and grasslands for middle latitudes , 1996 .

[52]  Paul Ginoux,et al.  Forecasting dust storms using the CARMA-dust model and MM5 weather data , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[53]  Reinhold Steinacker,et al.  Automatic Tracking of Convective Cells and Cell Complexes from Lightning and Radar Data , 2000 .

[54]  Neill E. Bowler,et al.  Development of a precipitation nowcasting algorithm based upon optical flow techniques , 2004 .

[55]  C. J. Stigter,et al.  Reclamation of Desertified Farmlands and Consequences for its Farmers in Semiarid Northern Nigeria: A Case Study of Yambawa Rehabilitation Scheme , 2003 .

[56]  Description and performance of an hourly nowcasting and very short‐range forecasting system , 1989 .

[57]  D. Cox,et al.  An Analysis of Transformations , 1964 .

[58]  W. Giesecke,et al.  Heat stress in dairy cattle and other livestock under southern African conditions. III. Monthly temperature-humidity index mean values and their significance in the performance of dairy cattle. , 1990, The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research.

[59]  Anthony Patt,et al.  Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe , 2002 .

[60]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Comparison of ensemble‐MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting , 2006 .

[61]  B. McCarl,et al.  The benefits to Mexican agriculture of an El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) early warning system , 2003 .

[62]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products , 2001 .

[64]  Ana P. Barros,et al.  Quantitative flood forecasting using multisensor data and neural networks , 2001 .

[65]  F. Molteni,et al.  The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation , 1996 .

[66]  David Cushing,et al.  Climate and fisheries , 1982 .

[67]  J. A. Jones Global Hydrology: Processes, Resources and Environmental Management , 1997 .

[68]  P. D. Thompson,et al.  Uncertainty of Initial State as a Factor in the Predictability of Large Scale Atmospheric Flow Patterns , 1957 .

[69]  L. P. Smith Methods in agricultural meteorology , 1975 .

[70]  Simon J. Mason,et al.  Comparison of Some Statistical Methods of Probabilistic Forecasting of ENSO. , 2002 .

[71]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  QUANTUM REALITY, COMPLEX NUMBERS, AND THE METEOROLOGICAL BUTTERFLY EFFECT , 2005 .