Fighter Drawdown Dynamics: Effects on Aircrew Inventories

Abstract : The Air Force faces an increasing demand for personnel with pilot skills, a demand driven by the expanding number and size of various staffs (such as those of air operations centers) and an increased demand for operators of unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), who, by Air Force policy, must be pilots. At the same time, the Air Force faces a declining ability to produce pilots (particularly fighter pilots) because its aircraft inventory is decreasing: By 2016, there will be fewer than 1,000 fighter aircraft in the total Air Force inventory (active, Guard and Reserve) -- only 32 percent of the number in 1989. With fewer aircraft, it is difficult for all pilots to fly enough to maintain their combat skills, and it is particularly difficult for new pilots to gain enough experience in their first flying tour to be prepared for follow-on nonflying and flying positions. This has made aircrew management -- the process of maintaining an aircrew force of sufficient size and readiness to accomplish the Air Force's current and forecast mission -- particularly difficult, and without changes to current management policies, the Air Force will be unable to fill important flying and staff positions. Our primary conclusion is that, to maintain the health of fighter units, the number of new pilots entering them must be reduced, ultimately to below 200 per year by 2016. Overabsorption decreases the number of monthly sorties inexperienced pilots can fly, lowers the average experience level of fighter units, makes it difficult or impossible for new pilots to become experienced in an initial 3-year tour, and increases the amount of time a pilot must wait between a first flying tour and an opportunity for a second one, thus slowing the development of the background and experience elements needed to make the pilot useful in staff or supervisory positions. All these circumstances can lead to a general degradation of pilot skills and combat capability.