Edinburgh Research Explorer Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

[1]  E. Coppola,et al.  Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean. The join EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX flagship pilot study , 2017 .

[2]  Peter Guttorp,et al.  New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue , 2017 .

[3]  Axel Timmermann,et al.  Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[4]  E. Fischer,et al.  Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation , 2017 .

[5]  Doug M. Smith,et al.  Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales , 2017, Nature Communications.

[6]  R. Vautard,et al.  A Statistical Framework for Conditional Extreme Event Attribution , 2017 .

[7]  Bin Wang,et al.  Predictability and Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review on Progress and Current Status , 2017 .

[8]  Michel Rixen,et al.  The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database , 2017 .

[9]  T. Palmer,et al.  Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution , 2017, Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society.

[10]  Hayley J. Fowler,et al.  Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK , 2016, International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

[11]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Connecting Atmospheric Blocking to European Temperature Extremes in Spring , 2017 .

[12]  M. Liniger,et al.  Predictive skill of climate indices compared to mean quantities in seasonal forecasts , 2017 .

[13]  E. Sanchez-Gomez,et al.  Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[14]  Richard A. L. Jones,et al.  Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[15]  G. Holland,et al.  The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes , 2016 .

[16]  Jian Lu,et al.  High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[17]  R. Vautard,et al.  Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events , 2016 .

[18]  N. Keenlyside,et al.  Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[19]  L. Alexander,et al.  Temperature and precipitation extremes in century‐long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations , 2016 .

[20]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria , 2016, Nature Communications.

[21]  Dáithí Stone,et al.  Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products , 2016, Weather and climate extremes.

[22]  Chris Derksen,et al.  LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome. , 2016 .

[23]  R. Vautard,et al.  Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change , 2016 .

[24]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts , 2016 .

[25]  Jaap Schellekens,et al.  MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data , 2016 .

[26]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia , 2016 .

[27]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations , 2016 .

[28]  T. Palmer,et al.  The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014 , 2016 .

[29]  E. Krug,et al.  Midlatitude daily summer temperatures reshaped by soil moisture under climate change , 2016 .

[30]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets , 2016, Nature.

[31]  L. Alexander,et al.  How much does it rain over land? , 2016 .

[32]  Ying Sun,et al.  Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events , 2015, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change.

[33]  N. Verhoest,et al.  Discovering relationships in climate-vegetation dynamics using satellite data , 2016 .

[34]  Omar Bellprat,et al.  Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[35]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010 , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[36]  N. Keenlyside,et al.  Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[37]  F. Zwiers,et al.  The Influence of Atmospheric Blocking on Extreme Winter Minimum Temperatures in North America , 2015 .

[38]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions , 2017 .

[39]  C. Cassou,et al.  Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world , 2015 .

[40]  D. Coumou,et al.  The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[41]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations , 2015 .

[42]  Erik W. Kolstad,et al.  Intraseasonal Persistence of European Surface Temperatures , 2015 .

[43]  J. García-Serrano,et al.  On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice , 2015 .

[44]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Attribution of climate extreme events , 2015 .

[45]  Y. Takaya,et al.  The Global Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Extreme Temperature Events* , 2015 .

[46]  Dim Coumou,et al.  The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes , 2015, Science.

[47]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential , 2015 .

[48]  Francesco Ravazzolo,et al.  Forecaster's Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation , 2015, 1512.09244.

[49]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe , 2015 .

[50]  S. Hsiang,et al.  Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities , 2015 .

[51]  H. Wernli,et al.  A Lagrangian investigation of hot and cold temperature extremes in Europe , 2015 .

[52]  Tim Palmer,et al.  Climate forecasting: Build high-resolution global climate models , 2014, Nature.

[53]  T. Shepherd.  Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections , 2014 .

[54]  H. Fowler,et al.  Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short‐duration extreme rainfall , 2014 .

[55]  C. Schär,et al.  Evaluation of the convection‐resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade‐long simulations , 2014 .

[56]  H. Fowler,et al.  Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model , 2014 .

[57]  Christopher A. T. Ferro,et al.  Fair scores for ensemble forecasts , 2014 .

[58]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus , 2014 .

[59]  Diego G. Miralles,et al.  Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation , 2014 .

[60]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters , 2014 .

[61]  T. Thorarinsdottir,et al.  Studying Statistical Methodology in Climate Research , 2014 .

[62]  Fiona Tummon,et al.  Attribution of extreme weather to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scales , 2014 .

[63]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[64]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Systematic land climate and evapotranspiration biases in CMIP5 simulations , 2014, Geophysical research letters.

[65]  T. N. Palmer,et al.  On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts , 2013, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[66]  Ali Behrangi,et al.  Implementation Plan for WCRP Grand Challenge on Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes , 2014 .

[67]  R. Vautard,et al.  EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research , 2014, Regional Environmental Change.

[68]  E. Fischer,et al.  Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes , 2013 .

[69]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence , 2013 .

[70]  Marion Mittermaier,et al.  Using MODE to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of cloud cover forecasts from high‐resolution NWP models , 2013 .

[71]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices , 2013 .

[72]  R. E. Benestad,et al.  Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[73]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment , 2013 .

[74]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate , 2013 .

[75]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detectable Changes in the Frequency of Temperature Extremes , 2013 .

[76]  Daniela JacobJuliane,et al.  EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research , 2013 .

[77]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional , 2013 .

[78]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[79]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections , 2012 .

[80]  Pascal Yiou,et al.  Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs , 2012 .

[81]  C. Taylor,et al.  Afternoon rain more likely over drier soils , 2012, Nature.

[82]  Heini Wernli,et al.  Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking for co‐located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on (sub‐)daily time scales , 2012 .

[83]  D. Easterling,et al.  Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment , 2012 .

[84]  T. Stocker,et al.  Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2012 .

[85]  R. Vautard,et al.  North-Atlantic SST amplified recent wintertime European land temperature extremes and trends , 2011 .

[86]  P. Jones,et al.  Data rescue initiatives: Bringing historical climate data into the 21st century , 2011 .

[87]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes , 2011, Nature.

[88]  J. Vial,et al.  Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking , 2010, Climate Dynamics.

[89]  A. Bodas‐Salcedo,et al.  Dreary state of precipitation in global models , 2010 .

[90]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency , 2010 .

[91]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review , 2010 .

[92]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe , 2009 .

[93]  David L. Toll,et al.  Statistical Evaluation of Combined Daily Gauge Observations and Rainfall Satellite Estimates over Continental South America , 2009 .

[94]  Phillip A. Arkin,et al.  An Intercomparison and Validation of High-Resolution Satellite Precipitation Estimates with 3-Hourly Gauge Data , 2009 .

[95]  A. Raftery,et al.  Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness , 2007 .

[96]  A. Raftery,et al.  Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation , 2007 .

[97]  B. Soden,et al.  Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming , 2006 .

[98]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period , 2005 .

[99]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation , 2004, Science.

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[101]  D. Karoly.  Science underpinning the prediction and attribution of extreme events , 2022 .