Managing downstream system performance and risk early in the project lifecycle

The challenge at the early stages of a complex project, such as SEA1000, is to accept uncertainty in both the requirements and the detail of the future approach. Capturing the evolving requirement, as the project progresses, necessitates the use of project tools able to accommodate uncertainty, and manage performance and risk, in a coherent manner. An evidence-based prediction of the anticipated outcome can then be provided during the early stages of the project lifecycle. This paper considers how a large number of individual analyses, each based on techniques comprising various combinations of analytical, numerical and experimental methods are best managed. An example is provided describing an approach developed by Frazer-Nash Consultancy and Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO), consisting of a software environment in which various individual analyses can be applied, and their results combined, in an integrated fashion. A crucial attribute of the approach is the employment of highly modular, object-oriented software designs, making the software flexible and robust and able to evolve during the project.