The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle

Increasing atmospheric CO2 is having detrimental effects on the Earth system. Societies have recognized that anthropogenic CO2 release must be rapidly reduced to avoid potentially catastrophic impacts. Achieving this via emissions reductions alone will be very difficult. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested to complement and compensate for insufficient emissions reductions, through increasing natural carbon sinks, engineering new carbon sinks, or combining natural uptake with engineered storage. Here, we review the carbon cycle responses to different CDR approaches and highlight the often-overlooked interaction and feedbacks between carbon reservoirs that ultimately determines CDR efficacy. We also identify future research that will be needed if CDR is to play a role in climate change mitigation, these include coordinated studies to better understand (i) the underlying mechanisms of each method, (ii) how they could be explicitly simulated, (iii) how reversible changes in the climate and carbon cycle are, and (iv) how to evaluate and monitor CDR.

[1]  B. Muller,et al.  An Assessment of the Paris Agreement on Finance 21st Session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC , 2016 .

[2]  James H. Brown,et al.  Effects of Size and Temperature on Metabolic Rate , 2001, Science.

[3]  J. Canadell,et al.  Greening of the Earth and its drivers , 2016 .

[4]  David P. Keller,et al.  Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario , 2014, Nature Communications.

[5]  A. Yool,et al.  How deep is deep enough? Ocean iron fertilization and carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean , 2014 .

[6]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions , 2016 .

[7]  J. Hansen,et al.  Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions , 2016, 1609.05878.

[8]  D. Mayer Potentials and Side-Effects of Herbaceous Biomass Plantations for Climate Change Mitigation , 2017 .

[9]  S. Ogle,et al.  Climate-smart soils , 2016, Nature.

[10]  Christopher W. Jones,et al.  Direct Capture of CO2 from Ambient Air. , 2016, Chemical reviews.

[11]  H. Lotze-Campen,et al.  Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects , 2016 .

[12]  Mark R. Lomas,et al.  Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification , 2015 .

[13]  C. Heinze,et al.  Assessing the potential of calcium‐based artificial ocean alkalinization to mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification , 2013 .

[14]  A. Oschlies,et al.  Model‐Based Assessment of the CO2 Sequestration Potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization , 2017 .

[15]  W. Lucht,et al.  Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations , 2016 .

[16]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  The European Transdisciplinary Assessment of Climate Engineering (EuTRACE): Removing Greenhouse Gases from the Atmosphere and Reflecting Sunlight away from Earth , 2015 .

[17]  Axel Don,et al.  Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via cultivation of cover crops – A meta-analysis , 2015 .

[18]  Gregory Benford,et al.  Ocean sequestration of crop residue carbon: recycling fossil fuel carbon back to deep sediments. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  Phil Williamson,et al.  Emissions reduction: Scrutinize CO2 removal methods , 2016, Nature.

[20]  C. Posten,et al.  Second Generation Biofuels: High-Efficiency Microalgae for Biodiesel Production , 2008, BioEnergy Research.

[21]  Oene Oenema,et al.  Sequestering Soil Organic Carbon: A Nitrogen Dilemma. , 2017, Environmental science & technology.

[22]  R. Matear,et al.  Nitrogen and phosphorous limitations significantly reduce future allowable CO2 emissions , 2014 .

[23]  T. Beringer,et al.  Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints , 2011 .

[24]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  W. Lucht,et al.  Corrigendum: Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 095010) , 2016 .

[26]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks , 2014 .

[27]  H. Muri The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective , 2018 .

[28]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Is extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal a ‘green’ form of geoengineering? A global modelling study , 2016 .

[29]  R. Matear,et al.  Enhancement of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by macronutrient fertilization , 2004 .

[30]  N. Paul,et al.  Biochar from commercially cultivated seaweed for soil amelioration , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[31]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Global Carbon Budget 2016 , 2016 .

[32]  S. Rolinski,et al.  Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation? , 2015, Environmental science & technology.

[33]  Thomas S. Bianchi,et al.  The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean , 2013, Nature.

[34]  K. Cassman,et al.  Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation , 2014 .

[35]  P. Renforth,et al.  Olivine Dissolution in Seawater: Implications for CO2 Sequestration through Enhanced Weathering in Coastal Environments , 2017, Environmental science & technology.

[36]  Pete Smith Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies , 2016, Global change biology.

[37]  R. Zeebe,et al.  Assessing possible consequences of ocean liming on ocean pH, atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated costs , 2013 .

[38]  David P. Keller,et al.  The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6 , 2018 .

[39]  Victor Brovkin,et al.  Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle , 2014 .

[40]  J. Otto,et al.  Europe’s forest management did not mitigate climate warming , 2016, Science.

[41]  D. Cozzolino,et al.  Biochar built soil carbon over a decade by stabilizing rhizodeposits , 2017 .

[42]  J. Canadell,et al.  Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions , 2016 .

[43]  F. Meysman,et al.  Negative CO2 emissions via enhanced silicate weathering in coastal environments , 2017, Biology Letters.

[44]  J. Canadell,et al.  Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation , 2014, Nature Communications.

[45]  PeterKöhler JudithHauck,et al.  Iron fertilisation and century-scale effects of open ocean dissolution of olivine in a simulated CO 2 removal experiment , 2016 .

[46]  P. K. Snyder,et al.  Quantifying the trade‐off between carbon sequestration and albedo in midlatitude and high‐latitude North American forests , 2017 .

[47]  Long Cao,et al.  The Effects of Solar Radiation Management on the Carbon Cycle , 2018, Current Climate Change Reports.

[48]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models , 2015 .

[49]  G. Wolff,et al.  Carbonate counter pump stimulated by natural iron fertilization in the Polar Frontal Zone , 2014 .

[50]  Tingzhen Ming,et al.  Climate engineering by mimicking natural dust climate control: the iron salt aerosol method , 2016 .

[51]  Peter C. Flynn,et al.  Geoengineering Downwelling Ocean Currents: A Cost Assessment , 2005 .

[52]  Paul J. Valdes,et al.  Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways , 2014 .

[53]  Alvaro Montenegro,et al.  Small temperature benefits provided by realistic afforestation efforts , 2011 .

[54]  A. Lenton,et al.  Optimising reef-scale CO2 removal by seaweed to buffer ocean acidification , 2016 .

[55]  P. Franks,et al.  Augmenting the biological pump: The shortcomings of geoengineered upwelling , 2014 .

[56]  Wei Fan,et al.  Research progress in artificial upwelling and its potential environmental effects , 2016, Science China Earth Sciences.

[57]  W. Lucht,et al.  Trade‐offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential , 2017, Global change biology.

[58]  K. Caldeira,et al.  The Science of Geoengineering , 2013 .

[59]  A. Oschlies,et al.  Could artificial ocean alkalinization protect tropical coral ecosystems from ocean acidification? , 2016 .

[60]  N. Vaughan,et al.  Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways , 2017 .

[61]  J. Pires,et al.  Atmospheric CO2 capture by algae: Negative carbon dioxide emission path. , 2016, Bioresource technology.

[62]  G. Bonan Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[63]  A. Oschlies,et al.  Atmospheric feedbacks in North Africa from an irrigated, afforested Sahara , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[64]  C. Tebaldi,et al.  What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? , 2016 .

[65]  Andreas Oschlies,et al.  Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world , 2015 .

[66]  C. Castanha,et al.  The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming , 2017, Science.

[67]  J. Griffioen Enhanced weathering of olivine in seawater: The efficiency as revealed by thermodynamic scenario analysis. , 2017, The Science of the total environment.

[68]  S. Ravi,et al.  Particulate matter emissions from biochar-amended soils as a potential tradeoff to the negative emission potential , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[69]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment , 2010 .

[70]  Claus Pade,et al.  Substantial global carbon uptake by cement carbonation , 2016 .

[71]  C. Reick,et al.  Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System , 2018 .

[72]  J. Moore,et al.  Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[73]  Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,et al.  Land-use protection for climate change mitigation , 2014 .

[74]  D. Bossio,et al.  Dynamics and climate change mitigation potential of soil organic carbon sequestration. , 2014, Journal of environmental management.

[75]  Michael J. Walsh,et al.  Geoengineering, marine microalgae, and climate stabilization in the 21st century , 2017 .

[76]  Inigo J. Losada,et al.  The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation , 2013 .

[77]  A. MacDougall Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon‐dioxide removal: Can a Holocene‐like climate be restored? , 2013 .

[78]  D. Harrison Global negative emissions capacity of ocean macronutrient fertilization , 2017 .

[79]  P. Macreadie,et al.  Can macroalgae contribute to blue carbon? An Australian perspective , 2015 .

[80]  Joanna Isobel House,et al.  Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2 , 2002 .

[81]  D. Wolf-Gladrow,et al.  Geoengineering impact of open ocean dissolution of olivine on atmospheric CO2, surface ocean pH and marine biology , 2013 .

[82]  Zhaomin Wang,et al.  Effects of regional afforestation on global climate , 2015 .

[83]  M. Lawrence Efficiency of carbon sequestration by added reactive nitrogen in ocean fertilisation , 2014 .

[84]  Jiaping Wu,et al.  Can Seaweed Farming Play a Role in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation? , 2017, Front. Mar. Sci..

[85]  K. Zickfeld,et al.  The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change , 2015 .

[86]  D. Chynoweth,et al.  Negative carbon via Ocean Afforestation , 2012 .

[87]  A. Oschlies,et al.  Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective , 2015 .

[88]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Betting on negative emissions , 2014 .

[89]  R. Houghton Interactions Between Land-Use Change and Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks , 2018, Current Climate Change Reports.

[90]  Carsten Meyer,et al.  Land use options for staying within the Planetary Boundaries – Synergies and trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals , 2018 .

[91]  K. Tokimatsu,et al.  Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use , 2017 .

[92]  Yoshiki Yamagata,et al.  BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land‐use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions , 2014 .

[93]  G. Pan,et al.  Is current biochar research addressing global soil constraints for sustainable agriculture , 2016 .

[94]  The limits to global‐warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal , 2017 .

[95]  S. Quegan,et al.  Simulating carbon capture by enhanced weathering with croplands: an overview of key processes highlighting areas of future model development , 2017, Biology Letters.

[96]  Simon Jeffery,et al.  Biochar boosts tropical but not temperate crop yields , 2017 .

[97]  M. Claussen,et al.  Past land use decisions have increased mitigation potential of reforestation , 2011 .

[98]  Craig Eldershaw,et al.  CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis , 2012 .

[99]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries , 2018, Nature Climate Change.

[100]  A. Navarra,et al.  Adjustment of the natural ocean carbon cycle to negative emission rates , 2013, Climatic Change.

[101]  Rattan Lal,et al.  The knowns, known unknowns and unknowns of sequestration of soil organic carbon , 2013 .

[102]  C. Reick,et al.  Reforestation in a high‐CO2 world—Higher mitigation potential than expected, lower adaptation potential than hoped for , 2016 .

[103]  Jana K. Maclaren,et al.  Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification , 2016, Nature.

[104]  Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,et al.  Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere , 2015 .

[105]  J. Rogelj,et al.  Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties , 2017, Nature Communications.

[106]  P. Ziemann Atmospheric Chemistry: Nature's plasticized aerosols , 2016 .

[107]  A. Oschlies,et al.  Side effects and accounting aspects of hypothetical large-scale Southern Ocean iron fertilization , 2010 .

[108]  C. Fan,et al.  Biochar reduces yield-scaled emissions of reactive nitrogen gases from vegetable soils across China , 2017 .

[109]  Urs Staufer,et al.  Quantification of the dry history of the Martian soil inferred from in situ microscopy , 2011 .

[110]  B. Kravitz,et al.  The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): Rationale and experimental design , 2017 .

[111]  H. Matthews,et al.  On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions , 2016 .

[112]  Pete Smith,et al.  Research priorities for negative emissions , 2016 .

[113]  O. Boucher,et al.  Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes , 2012 .

[114]  D. M. Lawrence,et al.  Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback , 2014, Nature.

[115]  Philip G. Sansom,et al.  Sources of Uncertainty in Future Projections of the Carbon Cycle , 2016 .

[116]  K. Boulding,et al.  THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS , 2017 .

[117]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges , 2014 .

[118]  R. Macdonald,et al.  Reply to Oreska et al ‘Comment on Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?’ , 2016, Environmental Research Letters.

[119]  M. Maslin,et al.  Reduced effectiveness of terrestrial carbon sequestration due to an antagonistic response of ocean productivity , 2002 .

[120]  E. Parson,et al.  Opinion: Climate policymakers and assessments must get serious about climate engineering , 2017, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[121]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed , 2017 .

[122]  T. Ilyina,et al.  Impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization on the carbon cycle and climate in Earth system simulations , 2016 .

[123]  Ning Zeng,et al.  Carbon sequestration via wood burial , 2008, Carbon balance and management.

[124]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean , 2013 .

[125]  M. Pahlow,et al.  Climate engineering by artificial ocean upwelling: Channelling the sorcerer's apprentice , 2010 .

[126]  M. Sperow,et al.  Estimating carbon sequestration potential on U.S. agricultural topsoils , 2016 .

[127]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model , 2010 .

[128]  K. Zickfeld,et al.  Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions , 2014 .

[129]  P. Renforth,et al.  Assessing ocean alkalinity for carbon sequestration , 2017 .

[130]  LRBoysen Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO 2 removal through biomass plantations , 2016 .