Estimation of OD Demand for Dynamic Assignment with Simultaneous Route and Departure Time Choice

As congestion not only results in the dispersion of O-D demand over multiple routes, but also in peak-spreading, use of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models as a means to predict the impact of new infrastructure should take account of departure time choice in addition to route choice. Departure time choice may be modelled simultaneously with the choice of routes in a utility maximisation framework. In such a model, each traveller has a preferred departureand arrival time, deviation from which results in a certain disutility. Departure-time choice can be viewed as routechoice in a suitably defined hypernetwork. The combination of departure time choice and route choice in a single framework is called the Dynamic User Optimum Departure time and Route choice (DUOD&R) assignment. Where the DUO assignment needs a dynamic Origin-Destination (O-D) matrix with fixed departure times, the DUO-D&R assignment needs a dynamic O/D matrix with preferred departure times under uncongested conditions. We will call this matrix the uncongested O-D matrix (uOD). This paper proposes a method to estimate the uncongested Origin-Destination (uOD) demand matrix that reflects preferred rather then realised departure times. In order to carry out this estimation, the Dynamic User-Optimal Departure time and Route choice (DUO-D&R) problem are formulated and solved. The schedule delay function and the departure choice model are assumed to be known. The possible advantage of the DUO-D&R assignment over DUO assignment is demonstrated through numerical experiments that correspond to scenarios in which infrastructure is expanded and travel demand is subject to uniform growth. Estimation of O-D Demand for Dynamic Assignment with Simultaneous Route and Departure Time Choice N.J. Van der Zijpp Ch.D.R Lindveld Transportation and Traffic Engineering Section Delft University of Technology P.O.Box 5048 2600 GA Delft Zijpp@ct.tudeflt.nl