Stakes and risk: Incapacitative intent in sentencing decisions

Measures of seriousness of the conviction offense and prior criminal record are strong correlates of sentences. This is consistent with a desert orientation to sentencing. Competing sentencing theories emphasize concepts of risk and incapacitation, but their roles in sentencing decisions have received less attention. This study focused on judicial risk assessments and on the concept of stakes. Both variables plausibly are related to incapacitative intents of judges. Our hypotheses that the risk and stakes measures used are relatively independent and correlated with, and have an interaction effect on, decision outcomes were supported. Both judges' assessments of risk and our stakes scale accounted for substantial variation in the decision to incarcerate. Time actually served in confinement also was related substantially to stakes, risk, and their interaction. Implications of the stakes and risk concepts for future guidelines development and decision study in criminal justice are discussed.

[1]  M. Levi,et al.  Comparison and combination of clinical and statistical predictions of recidivism among adult offenders. , 1983, The Journal of applied psychology.

[2]  W. Edwards.  Behavioral decision theory. , 1961, Annual review of psychology.

[3]  W. Edwards.  The theory of decision making. , 1954, Psychological bulletin.

[4]  J Monahan,et al.  The prediction of violent behavior: toward a second generation of theory and policy. , 1984, The American journal of psychiatry.

[5]  P. Meehl,et al.  Clinical versus Statistical Prediction. , 1955 .

[6]  D. Glaser.  Prediction Tables as Accounting Devices for Judges and Parole Boards , 1962 .

[7]  S. J. Press,et al.  Choosing between Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis , 1978 .

[8]  L. R. Goldberg,et al.  DIAGNOSTICIANS VS. DIAGNOSTIC SIGNS: THE DIAGNOSIS OF PSYCHOSIS VS. NEUROSIS FROM THE MMPI. , 1965, Psychological monographs.

[9]  Robyn M. Dawes,et al.  4 – CASE-BY-CASE VERSUS RULE GENERATED PROCEDURES FOR THE ALLOCATION OF SCARCE RESOURCES , 1977 .

[10]  J. Monahan.  Predicting Violent Behavior: An Assessment of Clinical Techniques , 1981 .

[11]  Don M. Gottfredson,et al.  Guidelines for parole and sentencing: A policy control method , 1978 .

[12]  J. Sawyer,et al.  Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. , 1966, Psychological bulletin.

[13]  Lewis R. Goldberg,et al.  Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. , 1970 .

[14]  Andrew von Hirsch,et al.  Doing Justice--The Choice of Punishments , 1976 .

[15]  Lewis R. Goldberg,et al.  Methodological critiques. Seer over sign: The first "good" example? , 1968 .

[16]  R. Dawes,et al.  Linear models in decision making. , 1974 .

[17]  J. Carroll.  Judgments of recidivism risk , 1977 .

[18]  Richard L. Wiener,et al.  Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making. , 1982 .

[19]  L. Sechrest,et al.  New Directions in the Rehabilitation of Criminal Offenders. , 1983 .

[20]  Don M. Gottfredson,et al.  Screening for Risk , 1980 .

[21]  Michael R. Gottfredson,et al.  Policy Guidelines for Bail: An Experiment in Court Reform. , 1985 .

[22]  Wayne Lee,et al.  Decision theory and human behavior , 1971 .

[23]  E. S. Rofman,et al.  The prediction of dangerous behavior in emergency civil committment. , 1980, The American journal of psychiatry.

[24]  Michael R. Gottfredson,et al.  Decisionmaking in criminal justice: Toward the rational exercise of discretion , 1980 .

[25]  The Efficacy of Alternative Approaches to Parole Prediction , 1955 .

[26]  S. Shah,et al.  Dangerousness: a paradigm for exploring some issues in law and psychology. , 1978, The American psychologist.

[27]  R. Dawes.  Judgment under uncertainty: The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making , 1979 .

[28]  John S. Carroll,et al.  Causal attributions in expert parole decisions. , 1978 .

[29]  P. Meehl,et al.  Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. , 1955, Psychological bulletin.

[30]  Gerald W. Smith,et al.  Can Violence Be Predicted? , 1972 .

[31]  T. R. Litwack,et al.  Psychiatry and the Presumption of Expertise: Flipping Coins in the Courtroom , 1974 .