Predicting probabilistic collision damage extents for tanker oil outflow assessment and regulation

This paper presents the most recent improvements and application of the Simplified Collision Model SIMCOL, developed under SNAME Ad Hoc Panel #6 for the rapid prediction of collision damage in probabilistic analysis. IMO 's ongoing transition to probabilistic performance-based standards requires the ability to predict the probabilistic environmental performance and safety of specific ship designs. Current IMO regulations use probability density functions (pdfs) to describe the location, extent and penetration of side and bottom damage. These pdfs are derived from limited historical damage statistics, and applied identically to all ships without consideration of their structural design. They do not consider the effect of structural design or crashworthiness on damage extent. SIMCOL provides a means to correct this deficiency. SIMCOL's ability to predict probabilistic damage in real world collision scenarios is demonstrated by application to two reference tanker structural designs, and comparison to the IMO damage pdfs. The comparison is excellent when the struck ship is a single hull tanker consistent with the single hull MARPOL tankers represented by the IMO statistics, and because of the physics-based models used in SIMCOL, it is reasonable to extrapolate this performance to today 's double hull tankers.

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