Network topology and systemic risk: Evidence from the Euro Stoxx market

This study investigates the network topology of equity volatilities. We propose a novel approach to model the interdependencies of the Euro Stoxx companies by constructing the minimum spanning tree with the upper tail dependence coefficient of the equity volatility. The empirical results demonstrate the usefulness of the network topology for the detection of systemic risk in high-volatility environments. More specifically, during crisis periods, the topology of the minimum spanning tree becomes more star-like and compact, accompanied by stronger rich-club effects. Such a network configuration is known to be less resilient to shock and more prone to systemic risk.

[1]  R. Mantegna Hierarchical structure in financial markets , 1998, cond-mat/9802256.

[2]  Benjamin Miranda Tabak,et al.  Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks , 2016 .

[3]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Detecting rich-club ordering in complex networks , 2006, physics/0602134.

[4]  Nikolaus Hautsch,et al.  Systemic Risk Spillovers in the European Banking and Sovereign Network , 2014 .

[5]  A. McNeil,et al.  Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach , 2000 .

[6]  Andrew J. Patton A review of copula models for economic time series , 2012, J. Multivar. Anal..

[7]  Franck Raynaud,et al.  Systemic risk and complex systems: a graph theory analysis , 2013 .

[8]  G. Caldarelli,et al.  Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk , 2014, Scientific Reports.

[9]  K. Kaski,et al.  Asset Trees and Asset Graphs in Financial Markets , 2003 .

[10]  R. Prim Shortest connection networks and some generalizations , 1957 .

[11]  Fabrizio Lillo,et al.  Volatility in financial markets: stochastic models and empirical results , 2002 .

[12]  R. Nelsen An Introduction to Copulas , 1998 .

[13]  Mario Eboli,et al.  A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks , 2019, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

[14]  Kenneth E. Scott,et al.  What Is Systemic Risk, and Do Bank Regulators Retard or Contribute to It? , 2003 .

[15]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Transmission of financial shocks in loan and deposit markets: Role of interbank borrowing and market monitoring , 2014 .

[16]  Peter Sarlin,et al.  Network Linkages to Predict Bank Distress , 2015 .

[17]  C. Czado,et al.  Flexible Dependence Modeling of Operational Risk Losses and Its Impact on Total Capital Requirements , 2013 .

[18]  Manfred Gilli,et al.  Extreme Value Theory for Tail-Related Risk Measures , 2000 .

[19]  H. Joe Dependence Modeling with Copulas , 2014 .