Reliability Assessment of the Brazilian Power System Using Enumeration and Monte Carlo

Two methods have been largely studied and used in power systems reliability assessment: contingency enumeration and nonsequential Monte Carlo simulation. Both have their advantages and drawbacks. Contingency enumeration is conceptually simple and usually requires low computational effort. Conversely, Monte Carlo simulation is computationally harder, but much more versatile to model random aspects. This paper depicts some important practical aspects regarding the application of both methods, emphasizing how they can be used in a complementary way. The Brazilian interconnected electrical system is used to illustrate the risk assessment of an actual large scale power system, utilizing both techniques.

[1]  Ronald N. Allan,et al.  Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation 1996-1999 , 1984 .

[2]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Reliability evaluation of power systems , 1984 .

[3]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods , 1994 .

[4]  M. Morozowski,et al.  Development of a composite system reliability program for large hydrothermal power systems-issues and solutions , 1991 .

[5]  S. Granville,et al.  Application of interior point methods to power flow unsolvability , 1996 .

[6]  R. Billinton,et al.  Power system reliability and its assessment. 2. Composite generation and transmission systems , 1992 .

[7]  Power Systems Engineering Committee.  Reliability Indices for Use in Bulk Power Supply Adequacy Evaluation , 1978, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[8]  J.C.O. Mello,et al.  The effects of voltage collapse problems in the reliability evaluation of composite systems , 1997 .

[9]  A.C.G. Melo,et al.  Combining local and optimised power flow remedial measures in bulk reliability assessment , 2003 .

[10]  M.V.F. Pereira,et al.  Reliability Evaluation in Hydrothermal Generating Systems , 1982, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.

[11]  Chanan Singli,et al.  Generation System Reliability Evaluation Using a Cluster Based Load Model , 1989 .

[12]  A. M. Leite da Silva,et al.  Uncertainty considerations in frequency and duration analysis for large hydrothermal generating systems , 1992 .

[13]  Roy Billinton,et al.  Selected considerations in utilizing Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative reliability evaluation of composite power systems , 2004 .

[14]  S. Granville.  Optimal reactive dispatch through interior point methods , 1994 .