Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure

Abstract The paper describes risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism (CT) protective measures for infrastructure. Such a decision support framework needs to consider threat scenarios and probabilities, value of human life, physical (direct) damage, indirect damage, risk reduction and protective measure costs. Probabilistic terrorism risk assessments that quantify the costs and benefits are conducted for three items of infrastructure using representative cost and vulnerability data. The illustrative examples show under what combination of risk reduction, threat probability, and fatality and damage costs the CT protective measures would be cost-effective for United States building, bridge and aviation infrastructure. It was found that if indirect losses (such as business interruption, loss of GDP, etc.) are considered, then CT protective measures are cost-effective even if the terrorist threat probability is not high. Opportunity costs can be considerable, which makes CT protective measures less cost-effective.

[1]  Eric B. Williamson,et al.  Recommendations for Blast-Resistant Design and Retrofit of Typical Highway Bridges , 2006 .

[2]  John C. McDonald,et al.  Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[3]  Louis Anthony Cox.  Improving risk-based decision making for terrorism applications. , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[4]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  A risk and cost-benefit assessment of United States aviation security measures , 2008 .

[5]  Blue Ribbon Panel on Bridge and Tunnel Security.  Recommendations for bridge and tunnel security , 2003 .

[6]  Susan E. Martonosi,et al.  How Effective Is Security Screening of Airline Passengers? , 2006, Interfaces.

[7]  Yong Bai,et al.  Rapid Bridge Replacement: Processes, Techniques, and Needs for Improvements , 2006 .

[8]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Life-safety risks and optimisation of protective measures against terrorist threats to infrastructure , 2011 .

[9]  Richard G. Little,et al.  Cost-effective Strategies to Address Urban Terrorism: A Risk Management Approach , 2007 .

[10]  GAO-09-57 Highway Infrastructure: Federal Efforts to Strengthen Security Should Be Better Coordinated and Targeted on the Nation's Most Critical Highway Infrastructure , 2009 .

[11]  Marc Roubens,et al.  Advances in decision analysis , 1999 .

[12]  Rudolph V. Matalucci,et al.  Security Risk Assessment and Management , 2007 .

[13]  P. Slovic.  Perception of risk. , 1987, Science.

[14]  B. Jenkins,et al.  Protecting Public Surface Transportation Against Terrorism and Serious Crime: Continuing Research on Best Security Practices , 2001 .

[15]  James C. Ray.  Risk-Based Prioritization of Terrorist Threat Mitigation Measures on Bridges , 2007 .

[16]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion , 2003, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[17]  Frieder Seible,et al.  Protection of our bridge infrastructure against man-made and natural hazards , 2008 .

[18]  Bruce R. Ellingwood.  Strategies for mitigating risk to buildings from abnormal load events , 2007 .

[19]  V Kip Viscusi,et al.  The Value of Life in Legal Contexts: Survey and Critique , 2000 .

[20]  Donna Burton,et al.  Department of Homeland Security Website. Administered by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC 20528. Retrieved August 2009, from http: //www.dhs.gov/ , 2010, Gov. Inf. Q..

[21]  J. Bram,et al.  Measuring the Effects of the September 11 Attack on New York City , 2002 .

[22]  Carl J. Ungerer,et al.  Risky business: Measuring the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism spending , 2008 .

[23]  Frieder Seible,et al.  Protection of our bridge infrastructure against manmade and natural hazards , 2006 .

[24]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Cost Effectiveness of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Protection of Buildings against Terrorist Attack , 2008 .

[25]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Terrorism Risks and Blast Damage to Built Infrastructure , 2006 .

[26]  Robert E. Melchers,et al.  On the ALARP approach to risk management , 2001, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[27]  Christopher D. Eamon.  Reliability of Concrete Masonry Unit Walls Subjected to Explosive Loads , 2007 .

[28]  B. Zycher.  A Preliminary Benefit / Cost Framework for Counterterrorism Public Expenditures , 2003 .

[30]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell.  Quantitative safety goals for risk management of industrial facilities , 1994 .

[31]  Harry W. Richardson,et al.  The Economic Costs and Consequences of Terrorism , 2008 .

[32]  Robert H. Sues,et al.  Reliability-based design methods for protective structures☆ , 1994 .

[33]  Tom LaTourrette,et al.  Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection , 2007 .

[34]  Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Homeland Security Regulatory Analyses , 2008 .

[35]  Liz Eckermann,et al.  Uncertainty and risk : multidisciplinary perspectives , 2011 .

[36]  Eric B. Williamson,et al.  Risk Management and Design of Critical Bridges for Terrorist Attacks , 2005 .

[37]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[38]  Lloyd Dixon,et al.  Compensation for Losses from the 9/11 Attacks , 2004 .

[39]  Hong Hao,et al.  Reliability analysis of direct shear and flexural failure modes of RC slabs under explosive loading , 2002 .

[40]  Bruce Schneier,et al.  Beyond fear - thinking sensibly about security in an uncertain world , 2003 .

[41]  Robin L Dillon,et al.  Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[42]  William S. Griffith.  Decisions Under Uncertainty: Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions , 2007, Technometrics.

[43]  Farzin Madjidi,et al.  Seismic Retrofit Program for Los Angeles Bridges , 1998 .

[44]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures , 2002 .

[45]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Probabilistic modelling of safety and damage blast risks for window glazing , 2009 .

[46]  Edward H. Wang.  Optimizing Bridge Seismic Retrofit Strategy Implementing Bridge Fragility Curves , 2006 .

[47]  Paul F. Mlakar,et al.  Structural Design for Physical Security: State of the Practice , 1999 .

[48]  Robert E. Melchers,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems , 1997 .

[49]  Gill H. McCarthy,et al.  A Cost Benefit Analysis of Security at the Naval Postgraduate School , 2003 .

[50]  Robert E. Chapman,et al.  Users Manual for Version 4.0 of the Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection | NIST , 2006 .

[51]  Stuart G. Reid,et al.  Acceptable risk criteria , 2000 .

[52]  Standards New Zealand.,et al.  Risk management guidelines: companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004 , 2004 .

[53]  Mark G. Stewart,et al.  Security risks and probabilistic risk assessment of glazing subject to explosive blast loading , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[54]  Bruce R. Ellingwood,et al.  Mitigating Risk from Abnormal Loads and Progressive Collapse , 2006 .