Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market

In this paper, we propose a methodology to measure systemic risk that stems from financial institutions (FIs) interconnected in interbank markets. We show that this framework is useful to identify systemically important FIs. This methodology can be used to perform stress tests using additional information from FIs default probabilities and their correlation structure. We present how to implement this methodology and apply it to the Brazilian case. We also evaluate the effects of the recent global crisis on the interbank market.

[1]  Giulia Iori,et al.  Systemic Risk on the Interbank Market , 2004 .

[2]  Alfred Lehar Measuring Systemic Risk: A Risk Management Approach , 2005 .

[3]  Jean-Charles Rochet,et al.  Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank , 2000 .

[4]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Competition and Financial Stability , 2003 .

[5]  G. Caldarelli,et al.  DebtRank: Too Central to Fail? Financial Networks, the FED and Systemic Risk , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[6]  J. End Liquidity Stress-Tester: A Model for Stress-testing Banks’ Liquidity Risk , 2010 .

[7]  Rajeev Motwani,et al.  The PageRank Citation Ranking : Bringing Order to the Web , 1999, WWW 1999.

[8]  J. Rochet,et al.  Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk , 1996 .

[9]  Craig H. Furfine,et al.  Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion , 2003 .

[10]  Systemically Important Accounts, Network Topology and Contagion in Artis , 2008 .

[11]  Larry Eisenberg,et al.  Systemic Risk in Financial Networks , 1999, Manag. Sci..

[12]  F. Black,et al.  The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  Paolo Emilio Mistrulli,et al.  Assessing Financial Contagion in the Interbank Market: Maximum Entropy Versus Observed Interbank Lending Patterns , 2007 .

[14]  Hideki Takayasu,et al.  Fractal Network derived from banking transaction -- An analysis of network structures formed by financial institutions -- , 2004 .

[15]  S. Markose,et al.  Monetary and Capital Markets Department Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax , 2012 .

[16]  Jukka M. Vesala,et al.  Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[17]  Hans Degryse,et al.  Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System , 2004 .

[18]  Samuel W. Malone,et al.  Macrofinancial risk analysis , 2008 .

[19]  Benjamin M. Tabak,et al.  Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks , 2009 .

[20]  Walter E. Beyeler,et al.  The topology of interbank payment flows , 2007 .

[21]  F. Castiglionesi Financial contagion and the role of the Central Bank , 2007 .

[22]  L. Embree,et al.  Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System , 2009 .

[23]  Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo,et al.  Systemic risk, financial contagion and financial fragility , 2010 .

[24]  Frederick S. Hillier,et al.  Introduction of Operations Research , 1967 .

[25]  R. C. Merton,et al.  On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates , 1974, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[26]  Franklin Allen,et al.  Financial Contagion , 2000, Journal of Political Economy.

[27]  Christian Upper,et al.  Using Counterfactual Simulations to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets , 2007 .

[28]  Jean-Pierre Müller,et al.  Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion , 2006 .

[29]  Alex W. H. Chan Merton, Robert C. , 2010 .

[30]  Ronald Heijmans,et al.  Towards a Network Description of Interbank Payment Flows , 2008 .

[31]  Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft,et al.  Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion? , 2002 .

[32]  Helmut Elsinger,et al.  Risk Assessment for Banking Systems , 2003, Manag. Sci..

[33]  Renée Fry,et al.  Actually this Time is Different , 2011 .

[34]  Michael Boss,et al.  Network topology of the interbank market , 2003, cond-mat/0309582.