Preferences for improving and declining sequences of health outcomes

Whereas choices among individual outcomes at different points in time generally show a positive time preference, choices between sequences of outcomes usually show a negative time preference, that is, a preference for improvement. The present studies explored how this preference for improving sequences is moderated by expectations about how sequences are usually experienced. Subjects in three experiments evaluated four types of health sequences with multiple sequence lengths. The length of the sequence and the particular health attribute described influenced both preferences and expectations such that preferences tracked expectations about how the sequences would realistically occur. Several mechanisms by which expectations could influence preferences are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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