Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario.

Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of +200Wm(-2)) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of -62.8 and -35Wm(-2), respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers.

[1]  Martha B. Dunbar,et al.  Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world , 2014 .

[2]  J. C. Berndtsson Green roof performance towards management of runoff water quantity and quality: A review , 2010 .

[3]  T. Oke,et al.  An evapotranspiration‐interception model for urban areas , 1991 .

[4]  K. Oleson,et al.  Effects of white roofs on urban temperature in a global climate model , 2010 .

[5]  C. Grimmond,et al.  Characterization of Energy Flux Partitioning in Urban Environments: Links with Surface Seasonal Properties , 2012 .

[6]  H. Martins,et al.  Climate change and pollutant emissions impacts on air quality in 2050 over Portugal , 2016 .

[7]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[8]  M. Jacobson,et al.  Effects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate , 2012 .

[9]  A. Christen,et al.  Energy and radiation balance of a central European city , 2004 .

[10]  Soe W. Myint,et al.  Enhancing Hydrologic Modelling in the Coupled Weather Research and Forecasting–Urban Modelling System , 2015, Boundary-Layer Meteorology.

[11]  R. Betts,et al.  Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects , 2010 .

[12]  A. Rocha,et al.  Recent trends of extreme temperature indices for the Iberian Peninsula , 2016 .

[13]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Changes in the Extremes in an Ensemble of Transient Climate Simulations with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM , 2000 .

[14]  Martinho Marta-Almeida,et al.  Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results , 2016 .

[15]  Ana Monteiro,et al.  Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal , 2012, International Journal of Biometeorology.

[16]  N. Pineda,et al.  Using NOAA AVHRR and SPOT VGT data to estimate surface parameters: application to a mesoscale meteorological model , 2004 .

[17]  Jun Yang,et al.  Quantifying air pollution removal by green roofs in Chicago , 2008 .

[18]  Maria Tombrou,et al.  The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1 , 2010 .

[19]  Kevin W. Manning,et al.  The Integrated WRF/Urban Modeling System: Development, Evaluation, and Applications to Urban Environmental Problems , 2010 .

[20]  T. Oke,et al.  Turbulent Heat Fluxes in Urban Areas: Observations and a Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) , 2002 .

[21]  J. Monteith,et al.  The Micrometeorology of the Urban Forest [and Discussion] , 1989 .

[22]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[23]  Thomas Elmqvist,et al.  Towards an EU research and innovation policy agenda for nature-based solutions & re-naturing cities. Final report of the Horizon 2020 expert group on nature-based solutions and re-naturing cities. , 2015 .

[24]  Gerald N. Flerchinger,et al.  Measurement of Surface Energy Fluxes from Two Rangeland Sites and Comparison with a Multilayer Canopy Model , 2012 .

[25]  C. S. B. Grimmond,et al.  Heat storage and anthropogenic heat flux in relation to the energy balance of a central European city centre , 2005 .

[26]  T. Susca Enhancement of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to include the effect of surface albedo on climate change: Comparing black and white roofs. , 2012, Environmental pollution.

[27]  P. Watkiss,et al.  Impacts of climate change in human health in Europe. PESETA-Human health study , 2009 .

[28]  Ian B. Strachan,et al.  Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities , 2014 .

[29]  H. Martins,et al.  Air quality over Portugal in 2020 , 2015 .

[30]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  The effectiveness of cool and green roofs as urban heat island mitigation strategies , 2014 .

[31]  J. Monteith,et al.  Boundary Layer Climates. , 1979 .

[32]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[33]  A. Rocha,et al.  High resolution WRF climatic simulations for the Iberian Peninsula: Model validation , 2016 .

[34]  Ahmed Memon Rizwan,et al.  A review on the generation, determination and mitigation of Urban Heat Island , 2008 .

[35]  C. Grimmond,et al.  The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): Evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver , 2011 .

[36]  James Li,et al.  Effect of green roof on ambient CO2 concentration , 2010 .

[37]  Ana Monteiro,et al.  Assessing and monitoring urban resilience using COPD in Porto. , 2012, The Science of the total environment.

[38]  Air quality plan for ozone: an urgent need for North Portugal , 2016, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health.

[39]  F. Lindberg,et al.  The effect of urban geometry on mean radiant temperature under future climate change: a study of three European cities , 2015, International Journal of Biometeorology.

[40]  J McGlade,et al.  The European Environment: State and Outlook 2005 , 2005 .

[41]  E. S. Krayenhoff,et al.  Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison , 2011 .

[42]  T. Oke The energetic basis of the urban heat island , 1982 .

[43]  R. Leichenko,et al.  Climate change and urban resilience , 2011 .

[44]  Gordon B. Bonan,et al.  Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications , 2002 .

[45]  Ana Isabel Miranda,et al.  Ensemble Techniques to Improve Air Quality Assessment: Focus on O3 and PM , 2013, Environmental Modeling & Assessment.

[46]  J. Beringer,et al.  Impact of Increasing Urban Density on Local Climate: Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Surface Energy Balance in Melbourne, Australia , 2007 .

[47]  J. Corte-Real,et al.  Temperature extremes in Europe and wintertime large-scale atmospheric circulation: HadCM3 future scenarios , 2006 .

[48]  J Twigg,et al.  Characteristics of a Disaster-resilient Community: A Guidance Note , 2007 .

[49]  T. Oke,et al.  Urban heat storage derived as energy balance residuals , 1987 .

[50]  H. Martins,et al.  Urban resilience to future urban heat waves under a climate change scenario: A case study for Porto urban area (Portugal) , 2017 .

[51]  Timothy R. Oke,et al.  Urban Water Balance: 2. Results From a Suburb of Vancouver, British Columbia , 1986 .

[52]  G. Powers,et al.  A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 , 2008 .

[53]  A. Dandou,et al.  An urban “green planning” approach utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. A case study of Athens, Greece , 2012 .

[54]  H. Taha Urban climates and heat islands: albedo, evapotranspiration, and anthropogenic heat , 1997 .

[55]  A. Synnefa,et al.  On the Use of Cool Materials as a Heat Island Mitigation Strategy , 2008 .

[56]  C. Rosenzweig Climate change and cities : first assessment report of the urban climate change research network , 2011 .

[57]  Timothy R. Oke,et al.  Heat Storage in Urban Areas: Local-Scale Observations and Evaluation of a Simple Model , 1999 .

[58]  Regine Hock,et al.  Testing longwave radiation parameterizations under clear and overcast skies at Storglaciären, Sweden , 2009 .

[59]  Elie Bou-Zeid,et al.  Synergistic Interactions between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves: The Impact in Cities Is Larger than the Sum of Its Parts* , 2013 .

[60]  C. Deser,et al.  Estimation of the Surface Heat Flux Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Global Oceans , 2005 .