Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment

[1]  Maarten J. IJzerman,et al.  Belief Elicitation to Populate Health Economic Models of Medical Diagnostic Devices in Development , 2014, Applied Health Economics and Health Policy.

[2]  Duncan Mortimer,et al.  An expert on every street corner? Methods for eliciting distributions in geographically dispersed opinion pools. , 2013, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

[3]  P. Auguste,et al.  Positron emission tomography/computerised tomography imaging in detecting and managing recurrent cervical cancer: systematic review of evidence, elicitation of subjective probabilities and economic modelling. , 2013, Health technology assessment.

[4]  Simon Day,et al.  Structured approach to the elicitation of expert beliefs for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial: a case study , 2013, Pharmaceutical statistics.

[5]  Katherine Payne,et al.  The Appropriate Elicitation of Expert Opinion in Economic Models , 2011, PharmacoEconomics.

[6]  C. Evans,et al.  Expert Judgement in Pharmacoeconomic Studies , 2000, PharmacoEconomics.

[7]  M. Sculpher,et al.  Using Value of Information Analysis to Prioritise Health Research , 2012, PharmacoEconomics.

[8]  Maarten Joost IJzerman,et al.  EXPERT ELICITATION TO POPULATE EARLY HEALTH ECONOMIC MODELS OF MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC DEVICES IN DEVELOPMENT , 2011 .

[9]  Nicky Cullum,et al.  Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration , 2011, Statistics in medicine.

[10]  Karl Claxton,et al.  Eliciting distributions to populate decision analytic models. , 2010, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

[11]  Erik Lebret,et al.  The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure , 2010, Environmental health : a global access science source.

[12]  Sindhu R Johnson,et al.  Methods to elicit beliefs for Bayesian priors: a systematic review. , 2010, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

[13]  D. Streiner,et al.  Introduction to health measurement scales. , 2010, Journal of psychosomatic research.

[14]  D. Moher,et al.  Guidance for Developers of Health Research Reporting Guidelines , 2010, PLoS medicine.

[15]  T. Brodtkorb Cost-effectiveness analysis of health technologies when evidence is scarce , 2010 .

[16]  A E Ades,et al.  Antiviral drugs for the treatment of influenza: a systematic review and economic evaluation. , 2009, Health technology assessment.

[17]  Alan Brennan,et al.  The Cost-Effectiveness of an RCT to Establish Whether 5 or 10 Years of Bisphosphonate Treatment Is the Better Duration for Women With a Prior Fracture , 2009, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[18]  Kerrie Mengersen,et al.  Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush‐tailed rock‐wallaby Petrogale penicillata , 2009 .

[19]  Jeremy E. Oakley,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans , 2009, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[20]  M Sculpher,et al.  Enhanced external counterpulsation for the treatment of stable angina and heart failure: a systematic review and economic analysis. , 2009, Health technology assessment.

[21]  M. Sculpher,et al.  Enhanced external counterpulsation for stable angina or heart failure: a systematic review and economic evaluation , 2009 .

[22]  Paul Tappenden,et al.  Use of expert knowledge in evaluating costs and benefits of alternative service provisions: A case study , 2008, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care.

[23]  T. Colbourn,et al.  Prenatal screening and treatment strategies to prevent group B streptococcal and other bacterial infections in early infancy: cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analyses. , 2007, Health technology assessment.

[24]  R. L. Winkler,et al.  Advances in Decision Analysis: Aggregating Probability Distributions , 2007 .

[25]  Sarah Wordsworth,et al.  Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example. , 2007, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

[26]  Alan J Girling,et al.  Modeling payback from research into the efficacy of left-ventricular assist devices as destination therapy , 2007, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care.

[27]  Jeremy E. Oakley,et al.  Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities , 2006 .

[28]  M C Downer,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of screening for oral cancer in primary care. , 2006, Health technology assessment.

[29]  A. O'Hagan,et al.  Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions , 2005 .

[30]  M. Sculpher,et al.  Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra. , 2005, Health economics.

[31]  M Sculpher,et al.  Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. , 2004, Health technology assessment.

[32]  David Evans,et al.  Hierarchy of evidence: a framework for ranking evidence evaluating healthcare interventions. , 2003, Journal of clinical nursing.

[33]  C. Evans,et al.  Expert judgement in pharmacoeconomic studies. Guidance and future use. , 2000, PharmacoEconomics.

[34]  J. Kadane,et al.  Experiences in elicitation , 1998 .

[35]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit , 1993 .

[36]  Beichelt Frank,et al.  IEEE Trans. Reliab. , 1992 .

[37]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Expert judgment in maintenance optimization , 1992 .

[38]  R. Cooke Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , 1991 .

[39]  R. Wolpert,et al.  Eliciting and Combining Subjective Judgments About Uncertainty , 1989, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care.

[40]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[41]  Allan Mazur,et al.  II Disputes between experts , 1973 .

[42]  R. L. Winkler The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis , 1967 .