Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing

[1] We use the new Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 with four different resolutions to investigate various aspects of solar cycle influence on the troposphere/stratosphere system. Three different configurations of sea surface temperatures are used to help determine whether the tropospheric response is due to forcing from above (UV variations impacting the stratosphere) or below (total solar irradiance changes acting through the surface temperature field). The results show that the stratospheric response is highly repeatable and significant. With the more active sun, the annual residual circulation change features relative increased upwelling in the Southern Hemisphere and downwelling in the Northern Hemisphere. Stratospheric west wind increases extend down into the troposphere, especially during Southern Hemisphere winter, and in some runs the jet stream weakens and moves poleward. The predominant tropospheric response consists of warming in the troposphere, with precipitation decreases south of the equator and in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes, with increases north of the equator especially over southern Asia. The tropospheric response is often not significant, but is fairly robust among the different simulations. These features, which have been reported in observations and other model studies, appear to be driven both from the stratosphere and the surface; nevertheless, they account for only a small percentage of the total variance. More accurate simulations of the solar cycle stratospheric ozone response, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics are necessary before any conclusions can be deemed definitive.

[1]  L. Hood.  Effects of Solar UV Variability on the Stratosphere , 2013 .

[2]  J. Lerner,et al.  Sensitivity of tracer transports and stratospheric ozone to sea surface temperature patterns in the doubled CO2 climate , 2002 .

[3]  Rind,et al.  Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate , 1999, Science.

[4]  K. Kodera,et al.  Improved 11‐year solar signal in the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB‐CMAM) , 2004 .

[5]  J. Hansen,et al.  Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990 , 1993 .

[6]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[7]  H. van Loon,et al.  A probable signal of the 11‐year solar cycle in the troposphere of the northern hemisphere , 1999 .

[8]  K. Kodera,et al.  Solar influence on the tropical stratosphere and troposphere in the northern summer , 2006 .

[9]  L. Hood,et al.  Solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone: Multiple regression analysis of long‐term satellite data sets and comparisons with models , 2006 .

[10]  J. Lerner,et al.  A complementary analysis for SAGE II data profiles , 2005 .

[11]  D. Marsh,et al.  Attribution of decadal variability in lower‐stratospheric tropical ozone , 2007 .

[12]  Ka Kit Tung,et al.  Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection , 2007 .

[13]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century , 2003 .

[14]  D. Jacob,et al.  Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology : Model description and evaluation , 2001 .

[15]  D. Rind,et al.  Modeling the effects of UV variability and the QBO on the troposphere-stratosphere system. Part I: The middle atmosphere , 1995 .

[16]  W. White,et al.  Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales , 2003 .

[17]  Peter H. Stone,et al.  Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II , 1983 .

[18]  C. Brühl,et al.  Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature , 2008 .

[19]  H. van Loon,et al.  The global 11‐year solar signal in July–August , 2000 .

[20]  L. Gray,et al.  Characterization of the 11-Year Solar Signal Using a Multiple Regression Analysis of the ERA-40 Dataset , 2005 .

[21]  K. Labitzke.  On the signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the stratosphere and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation , 2004 .

[22]  P. Keckhut,et al.  The 11-year solar-cycle effects on the temperature in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere: Part I—Assessment of observations , 2005 .

[23]  W. White.  Response of tropical global ocean temperature to the Sun's quasi‐decadal UV radiative forcing of the stratosphere , 2006 .

[24]  Greg Kopp,et al.  SORCE Contributions to New Understanding of Global Change and Solar Variability , 2005 .

[25]  J. Hansen,et al.  A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the earth's atmosphere , 1974 .

[26]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation , 1994 .

[27]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[28]  W. Randel,et al.  A stratospheric ozone profile data set for 1979–2005: Variability, trends, and comparisons with column ozone data , 2007 .

[29]  Joanna D. Haigh,et al.  The effects of solar variability on the Earth's climate , 2003, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[30]  J. Austin,et al.  Solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature in simulations of a coupled chemistry-climate model , 2006 .

[31]  E. Manzini,et al.  Chemical and dynamical response to the 11‐year variability of the solar irradiance simulated with a chemistry‐climate model , 2004 .

[32]  D. Rind,et al.  Effects of solar cycle variability on the lower stratosphere and the troposphere , 1999 .

[33]  John Austin,et al.  The global signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the stratosphere: observations and models , 2002 .

[34]  T. P. Barnett,et al.  Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America , 1994, Science.

[35]  J. Lean,et al.  Modeling the Sun’s Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713 , 2005 .

[36]  K. Kodera,et al.  Effect of Solar Activity on the Polar-night Jet Oscillation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Winter , 2002 .

[37]  E. O. Hulburt,et al.  SORCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO NEW UNDERSTANDING OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND SOLAR VARIABILITY , 2005 .

[38]  Gavin A. Schmidt,et al.  Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology , 2006 .

[39]  B. Hannegan,et al.  Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models : A simple chemistry and the cross-tropopause flux , 2000 .

[40]  K. Kodera.  Solar influence on the Indian Ocean Monsoon through dynamical processes , 2004 .

[41]  Jonathan Lifland,et al.  Solar Variability and Its Effects on Climate , 2004 .

[42]  D. Rind,et al.  The Sun's Role in Climate Variations , 2002, Science.

[43]  M. Chin,et al.  Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium aerosols in the United States: Implications for policy , 2004 .

[44]  K. Kodera,et al.  Dynamical response to the solar cycle , 2002 .

[45]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance , 1997 .

[46]  G. Meehl,et al.  A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July–August , 2004 .

[47]  Clara Deser,et al.  Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900–1989 , 1993 .

[48]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[49]  J. Haigh,et al.  The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere , 2000 .

[50]  C. Brühl,et al.  Stratospheric and tropospheric response to enhanced solar UV radiation: A model study , 2003 .

[51]  D. Streets,et al.  Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE , 2006, physics/0610109.

[52]  J. Lerner,et al.  Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models , 2007 .

[53]  K. Coughlin,et al.  Eleven-year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere , 2004 .

[54]  M. Blackburn,et al.  The Response of Tropospheric Circulation to Perturbations in Lower-Stratospheric Temperature , 2005 .

[55]  Katja Matthes,et al.  Transfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: Northern winter , 2004 .

[56]  Gerald A. Meehl,et al.  Coupled air-sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter , 2007 .

[57]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Seasonal and interannual variability of the stratosphere diagnosed from UKMO TOVS analyses , 2000 .

[58]  J. Lean,et al.  Stratospheric ozone variation induced by the 11‐year solar cycle: Recent 22‐year simulation using 3‐D chemical transport model with reanalysis data , 2006 .

[59]  P. Thejll,et al.  Patterns of tropospheric response to solar variability , 2003 .

[60]  K. Labitzke.  Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar region , 1987 .

[61]  J. D. Haigh,et al.  The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate , 1994, Nature.

[62]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[63]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854–1997) , 2004 .

[64]  R. Narasimha,et al.  Possible association between Indian monsoon rainfall and solar activity , 2005 .