Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Engineering Geology I. Problem Statement and Introduction to Solution

Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Engineering Geology — Part I. Uncertainty about geologic conditions and about geotechnical parameters is probably the most distinctive characteristic of geotechnical engineering and engineering geology. Evidence for this are the role of engineering judgement and design approaches that cannot be found in any other engineering discipline. However, a more quantitative and systematic treatment of uncertainty through the use of statistical and probabilistic methods can greatly aid the engineering geologist and geotechnical engineer. In this Supplementum 12 a first part of a paper on this topic will be presented, describing sources of uncertainty and their consequences. Traditional approaches for analyzing uncertainty and their deficiencies are discussed leading to the conclusion that they can gain from being complemented by probabilistic and statistical methods (Part 11 of the paper describing the details of such methods will be pubhshed in a future issue of Rock Mechanics).