Time-Dependent Origin–Destination Demand Estimation

This paper proposes a modified bi-level optimization algorithm to estimate the time-dependent origin–destination trip matrices for large-scale networks with multiple vehicle classes. Methodologies are presented to overcome the challenges caused by the scale of the problem. The upper-level problem, a bound-constrained quadratic problem, had many variables and parameters for a network with around 68,000 links, 28,000 nodes, and 3,700 zones. Techniques to reduce the number of variables and parameters are described in this study, along with an approach to reduce the time and memory requirement of the lower-level problem. Furthermore, the basic approach, which had been applied only to a single vehicle class, was extended and adapted in this study to estimate matrices for single-occupancy and high-occupancy vehicles jointly. Two solution packages, MINOS and KNITRO, were tested for the upper-level problem. The solution package KNITRO was run with an option to use an interior point–conjugate gradient algorithm, which was well suited to large-scale nonlinear problems. The modified bi-level algorithm was applied to estimate the time-dependent demand patterns for the New York City regional network.

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