Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025)

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

[1]  Dermot Gately,et al.  The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s , 1988 .

[2]  M. Mazraati,et al.  Modelling aviation fuel demand: the case of the United States and China , 2008 .

[3]  C. Lim,et al.  Time Series Forecasts of International Travel Demand for Australia , 2002 .

[4]  D. Greene.  Transportation and Energy, Overview , 2004 .

[5]  Ian A. Waitz,et al.  Aircraft and Energy Use , 2004 .

[6]  Seraj Yousef Abed,et al.  An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia , 2001 .

[7]  Franz Rothlauf,et al.  Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation , 2007 .

[8]  K. Atkinson,et al.  AERO2k Global Aviation Emissions Inventories for 2002 and 2025 , 2004 .

[9]  Aie.  Transport Energy and CO2 : Moving towards Sustainability , 2009 .

[10]  Sally Cairns,et al.  Predict and decide - aviation, climate change and UK policy , 2006 .

[11]  David Gillingwater,et al.  Aviation and sustainability , 2003 .

[12]  Anming Zhang,et al.  Issues on liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation , 2002 .

[13]  Dipasis Bhadra,et al.  Structure and dynamics of the core US air travel markets: A basic empirical analysis of domestic passenger demand , 2008, Journal of Air Transport Management.

[14]  D. Gillen,et al.  International transmission of shocks in the airline industry , 2003 .

[15]  Andreas Wald,et al.  Aviation growth in the Middle East – impacts on incumbent players and potential strategic reactions , 2008 .

[16]  Richard S. J. Tol,et al.  Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation , 2010 .

[17]  K. Mason.  OBSERVATIONS OF FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN THE DEMAND FOR AVIATION SERVICES , 2005 .

[18]  Oliver W. Wojahn,et al.  Airline network structure and the gravity model , 2001 .

[19]  David L. Greene,et al.  Energy-Efficiency Improvement Potential of Commercial Aircraft , 1992 .

[20]  Chenghu Zhou,et al.  China’s airline consolidation and its effects on domestic airline networks and competition , 2009 .

[21]  Christian Overgaard Hansen,et al.  A passenger travel demand model for Copenhagen , 2003 .

[22]  B. Turton,et al.  Air transport operations and policy in Zimbabwe 1980–1998 , 2000 .

[23]  Joosung J. Lee,et al.  Can we accelerate the improvement of energy efficiency in aircraft systems , 2010 .

[24]  C. Witt,et al.  Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research , 1995 .

[25]  M. Arellano,et al.  Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations , 1991 .

[26]  Andreas Schäfer,et al.  The global demand for motorized mobility , 1998 .

[27]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report , 2008 .

[28]  Martin Dresner,et al.  Leisure versus business passengers: Similarities, differences, and implications , 2006 .

[29]  John D. Kasarda,et al.  Air cargo as an economic development engine: A note on opportunities and constraints , 2005 .

[30]  David L. Greene.  TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY , 1994 .

[31]  Notis Pagiavlas,et al.  US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences , 2004 .

[32]  William M. Swan.  Airline route developments: a review of history , 2002 .

[33]  Airbus Airbus,et al.  2007-2026 Global Market Forecast – Airbus , 2007 .

[34]  N. Njegovan,et al.  Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach , 2006 .

[35]  Pascal Gastineau,et al.  Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025 , 2010 .

[36]  J. Penner,et al.  Aviation and the Global Atmosphere , 1999 .

[37]  Anne Graham,et al.  Demand for leisure air travel and limits to growth , 2000 .

[38]  M. Thring.  World Energy Outlook , 1977 .

[39]  Sue Ling Lai,et al.  Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA , 2005 .

[40]  Mohammad Mazraati.  World Aviation Fuel Demand Outlook , 2010 .

[41]  Vicente Inglada,et al.  Spanish air travel and the September 11 terrorist attacks: a note , 2004 .

[42]  R. Tol,et al.  Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU-US Open Skies agreement , 2009 .

[43]  Andrew Macintosh,et al.  International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand? , 2008, Energy Policy.

[44]  David S. Lee,et al.  Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century , 2009, Atmospheric Environment.

[45]  Mikael Höök,et al.  Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios , 2009 .

[46]  Frederic P. Miller,et al.  IPCC fourth assessment report , 2009 .

[47]  Andreas Schäfer,et al.  Historical and future trends in aircraft performance, cost, and emissions , 2001 .

[48]  Anu Vedantham,et al.  Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx , 1998 .

[49]  J. Middel,et al.  Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft An overview of historical and future trends , 2005 .

[50]  European airlines conduct after September 11 , 2004 .