Building general resilience in preparation for unexpected risks: applying complex systems thinking to disaster risk reduction.

Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Entrepreneurship, Commercialisation and Innovation Centre (ECIC), 2015

[1]  Terje Aven,et al.  Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[2]  P. Walley Measures of Uncertainty in Expert Systems , 1996, Artificial Intelligence.

[3]  David Ríos Insua,et al.  Robust Bayesian analysis , 2000 .

[4]  Christoph H. Loch,et al.  Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects , 2006 .

[5]  F. Berkes,et al.  Community Resilience: Toward an Integrated Approach , 2013 .

[6]  David Salt,et al.  Resilience Thinking : Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World , 2017 .

[7]  G. Midgley Systemic intervention for public health. , 2006, American journal of public health.

[8]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  Globally networked risks and how to respond , 2013, Nature.

[9]  Germany National Progress Report on the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action , 2009 .

[10]  Charles B. Keating,et al.  Emergence in System of Systems , 2008 .

[11]  Michele-Lee Moore,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience Through Multi-scalar Collaboration Surmountable Chasms: Networks and Social Innovation for Resilient Systems , 2011 .

[12]  Benyamin Lichtenstein,et al.  The leadership of emergence: A complex systems leadership theory of emergence at successive organizational levels☆ , 2009 .

[13]  Alexander M. Millkey The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2009 .

[14]  Klaus Hoffmann Risk Management : neue Wege der betrieblichen Risikopolitik , 1985 .

[15]  Janet Mancini Billson,et al.  Focus Groups: A Practical Guide for Applied Research , 1989 .

[16]  Denis Fischbacher-Smith,et al.  Crisis management in a complex world , 2010 .

[17]  Sabine Perch-Nielsen,et al.  Exploring the link between climate change and migration , 2008 .

[18]  Daniel P. Aldrich,et al.  Building Resilience: Social Capital in Post-Disaster Recovery , 2012 .

[19]  Sarah J. Tracy Qualitative Quality: Eight “Big-Tent” Criteria for Excellent Qualitative Research , 2010 .

[20]  A. Strauss,et al.  Basics of qualitative research: Grounded theory procedures and techniques. , 1993 .

[21]  A. Tversky,et al.  Rational choice and the framing of decisions , 1990 .

[22]  Sue Newell,et al.  Site-shifting as the source of ambidexterity: Empirical insights from the field of ticketing , 2014, J. Strateg. Inf. Syst..

[23]  W. Neuman,et al.  Basics of Social Research: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches , 2006 .

[24]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Panarchy Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems , 2002 .

[25]  F. E. Boteler,et al.  Building disaster-resilient families, communities, and businesses , 2007 .

[26]  David Etkin,et al.  People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis , 2007 .

[27]  S. Maguire,et al.  The SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management , 2011 .

[28]  K. Magis Community Resilience: An Indicator of Social Sustainability , 2010 .

[29]  Robert Y. Cavana,et al.  Systems Thinking, System Dynamics , 2007 .

[30]  Peter Checkland,et al.  Learning For Action: A Short Definitive Account of Soft Systems Methodology, and its use for Practitioners, Teachers and Students , 2007 .

[31]  Keith W. Hipel,et al.  System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[32]  M. Pelling,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience Through Multi-scalar Collaboration From Resilience to Transformation: the Adaptive Cycle in Two Mexican Urban Centers , 2011 .

[33]  A. Cavallo Complex Systems Thinking in Preparation for Unexpected Risks: Building General Resilience in South Australia , 2017 .

[34]  Paul M. Salmon,et al.  New perspectives on disaster response: the role of systems theory and methods , 2012 .

[35]  Bela H. Banathy,et al.  Designing social systems in a changing world , 1996 .

[36]  Fiona Kerr Creating and leading adaptive organisations: the nature and practice of emergent logic. , 2014 .

[37]  Karl E. Weick,et al.  Managing the unexpected: Assuring high performance in an age of complexity. , 2001 .

[38]  R. Bhaskar The Possibility of Naturalism , 2014 .

[39]  Tina Comes,et al.  Designing decision support systems at the interface between complex and complicated domains , 2013, AMCIS.

[40]  C. Lindblom THE SCIENCE OF MUDDLING THROUGH , 1959 .

[41]  M. Crotty The Foundations of Social Research: Meaning and Perspective in the Research Process , 1998 .

[42]  John Mingers,et al.  Multimethodology : the theory and practice of combining management science methodologies , 1997 .

[43]  D. Helbing,et al.  Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[44]  Terry Williams,et al.  Modelling Complex Projects , 2001 .

[45]  Nancy G. Leveson,et al.  Applying systems thinking to analyze and learn from events , 2010 .

[46]  Simon Winchester,et al.  Krakatoa: the Day the World Exploded, 27 August 1883 , 2003 .

[47]  Friedemann Wenzel,et al.  The March 2011 Japan Earthquake: Analysis of Losses, Impacts, and Implications for the Understanding of Risks Posed by Extreme Events , 2011 .

[48]  John Boardman,et al.  Systems Thinking: Coping with 21st Century Problems , 2008 .

[49]  Kay Kitazawa,et al.  Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response , 2012 .

[50]  Bruce Evan Goldstein,et al.  Expanding the Scope and Impact of Collaborative Planning , 2010 .

[51]  S. Frosdick The techniques of risk analysis are insufficient in themselves , 1997 .

[52]  B. Berg Qualitative Research Methods for the Social Sciences , 1989 .

[53]  Andrew Zolli,et al.  Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back , 2012 .

[54]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Coping with Collapse: Ecological and Social Dynamics in Ecosystem Management , 2001 .

[55]  Ulrich Beck,et al.  Cosmopolitanism as Imagined Communities of Global Risk , 2011 .

[56]  Michael W. Mehaffy,et al.  New Urbanism and Beyond: Designing Cities for the Future , 2008 .

[57]  Niek J. E. Wijngaards,et al.  Scenario reliability assessment to support decision makers in situations of severe uncertainty , 2012, 2012 IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support.

[58]  Grenville Barnes,et al.  Understanding Household Connectivity and Resilience in Marginal Rural Communities through Social Network Analysis in the Village of Habu, Botswana , 2012 .

[59]  C. S. Holling Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[60]  W. Adger,et al.  Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation , 2013 .

[61]  Niek J. E. Wijngaards,et al.  Designing Distributed Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems for Complex and Uncertain Situations , 2013 .

[62]  Toshiyuki Yasui,et al.  Managing Complex Issues through Evolutionary Learning Laboratories , 2013 .

[63]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  Managing Complexity: An Introduction , 2008 .

[64]  T. Aven,et al.  Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[65]  Mechthilde Fuhrer Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction , 2014 .

[66]  A. Masten,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Managing Surprises in Complex Systems Disaster Preparation and Recovery: Lessons from Research on Resilience in Human Development , 2008 .

[67]  A. Cavallo Risk Management in Complex Projects: An exploratory study to managing unknown unknowns in uncertain environments , 2010 .

[68]  N. Taleb Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics , 2007 .

[69]  R. Buehler,et al.  Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. , 2002 .

[70]  Thomas A. Schwandt Constructivist, interpretivist approaches to human inquiry. , 1994 .

[71]  N. Denzin The art and politics of interpretation. , 1994 .

[72]  Benjamin P. Bryant,et al.  Thinking Inside the Box , 2010 .

[73]  Mo Jamshidi Introduction to System of Systems , 2008 .

[74]  Ana Maria Cruz,et al.  Vulnerability of the oil and gas sector to climate change and extreme weather events , 2013, Climatic Change.

[75]  Stefano Battiston,et al.  Systemic risk in a unifying framework for cascading processes on networks , 2009, 0907.5325.

[76]  Liu Hong,et al.  Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems: A methodological framework , 2012 .

[77]  F. Norris,et al.  Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness , 2008, American journal of community psychology.

[78]  W. Adger,et al.  Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change , 2003 .

[79]  D. Stewart,et al.  What is Resilience? , 2011, Canadian journal of psychiatry. Revue canadienne de psychiatrie.

[80]  Gordon Walker,et al.  Renewable energy and the public , 1995 .

[81]  Terje Aven,et al.  Practical implications of the new risk perspectives , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[82]  Karl E. Weick,et al.  Managing the Unexpected: Complexity as Distributed Sensemaking , 2005 .

[83]  Peter Allen,et al.  Complexity and systems thinking , 2011 .

[84]  Michael T. Pich,et al.  Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos , 2002, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[85]  M. Power The invention of operational risk , 2005 .

[86]  Michael Opielka Gemeinschaft in Gesellschaft , 2004 .

[87]  Terje Aven,et al.  A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[88]  Mark Taylor,et al.  A Systemic Approach to Fire Prevention Support , 2012 .

[89]  Matthew Leitch,et al.  ISO 31000:2009—The New International Standard on Risk Management , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[90]  Matthew B. Miles,et al.  Qualitative Data Analysis: An Expanded Sourcebook , 1994 .

[91]  Carl Folke,et al.  A Theory of Transformative Agency in Linked Social-Ecological Systems , 2013 .

[92]  Kurt A. Richardson,et al.  Complexity Science: A 'Grey' Science for the 'Stuff in Between' , 2001, ICSTM.

[93]  S. Schiavon,et al.  Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. , 2007 .

[94]  Brian J. Sauser,et al.  Paradox: Holarchical view of system of systems engineering management , 2008, 2008 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering.

[95]  Ortwin Renn,et al.  A New Approach to Risk Evaluation and Management: Risk‐Based, Precaution‐Based, and Discourse‐Based Strategies 1 , 2002, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[96]  C. S. Holling Two Cultures of Ecology , 1998 .

[97]  Mark W. Maier,et al.  Architecting Principles for Systems‐of‐Systems , 1996 .

[98]  C. Folke,et al.  Adaptive Comanagement for Building Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems , 2004, Environmental management.

[99]  Manuela Herman,et al.  Resilience Practice Building Capacity To Absorb Disturbance And Maintain Function , 2016 .

[100]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Second-order probabilities and belief functions , 1987 .

[101]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  Disasters as Extreme Events and the Importance of Network Interactions for Disaster Response Management , 2006, Extreme Events in Nature and Society.

[102]  Antonella Cavallo,et al.  Integrating disaster preparedness and resilience: A complex approach using system of systems , 2014 .

[103]  E. Guba,et al.  Competing paradigms in qualitative research. , 1994 .

[104]  J. Neumann,et al.  Theory of games and economic behavior , 1945, 100 Years of Math Milestones.

[105]  Gerard P. Hodgkinson,et al.  Heuristics, biases and strategic decision making , 2002 .

[106]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method , 2009 .

[107]  Erik Auf der Heide,et al.  Disaster Response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination , 1989 .

[108]  C. Wamsler,et al.  The role of individual adaptive practice for sustainable adaptation , 2015 .

[109]  Tony Waters,et al.  Environmental hazards: Assessing risk and reducing disaster , 1997 .

[110]  J. Knote Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community , 2004 .

[111]  Lance Gunderson,et al.  Insight, part of a Special Feature on Managing Surprises in Complex Systems Ecological and Human Community Resilience in Response to Natural Disasters , 2010 .

[112]  Umberto Eco,et al.  The sign of three : Dupin, Holmes, Peirce , 1983 .

[113]  David Alexander,et al.  Communicating earthquake risk to the public: the trial of the “L’Aquila Seven” , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[114]  Guy H. Walker,et al.  Coordination during multi‐agency emergency response: issues and solutions , 2011 .

[115]  J.K. DeRosa,et al.  A Research Agenda for the Engineering of Complex Systems , 2008, 2008 2nd Annual IEEE Systems Conference.

[116]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty , 1999 .

[117]  D. Alexander Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey , 2013 .

[118]  C. Folke RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES , 2006 .

[119]  Vernon Ireland,et al.  Preparing for complex interdependent risks: a system of systems approach to building disaster resilience , 2014 .

[120]  Matthias Ruth,et al.  Climate change and natural disasters: macroeconomic performance and distributional impacts , 2009 .

[121]  Erik Hollnagel,et al.  Safety-I and Safety-II: The Past and Future of Safety Management , 2014 .

[122]  Vernon Ireland,et al.  SoS in disasters: Why following the manual can be a mistake , 2012, 2012 7th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE).

[123]  D. Snowden,et al.  A leader's framework for decision making , 2007 .

[124]  B. Asbjørnslett Assessing the Vulnerability of Supply Chains , 2009 .

[125]  John M. Flach,et al.  Complexity: learning to muddle through , 2011, Cognition, Technology & Work.

[126]  T. Sebeok,et al.  “You Know my Method”: A Juxtaposition of Charles S. Peirce and Sherlock Holmes , 1979 .

[127]  P. Arbon Developing a model and tool to measure community disaster resilience , 2014 .

[128]  Sven Ove Hansson,et al.  Is Risk Analysis Scientific? , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[129]  M. V. Aalst The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters , 2006 .

[130]  L. Alberto Franco,et al.  Raising the bar: strategic multi-criteria decision analysis , 2011, J. Oper. Res. Soc..