Game theory, on-line prediction and boosting

We study the close connections between game theory, on-line prediction and boosting. After a brief review of game theory, we describe an algorithm for learning to play repeated games based on the on-line prediction methods of Littlestone and Warmuth. The analysis of this algorithm yields a simple proof of von Neumann’s famous minmax theorem, as well as a provable method of approximately solving a game. We then show that the on-line prediction model is obtained by applying this gameplaying algorithm to an appropriate choice of game and that boosting is obtained by applying the same algorithm to the “dual” of this game.

[1]  D. Blackwell An analog of the minimax theorem for vector payoffs. , 1956 .

[2]  James Hannan,et al.  4. APPROXIMATION TO RAYES RISK IN REPEATED PLAY , 1958 .

[3]  Gerald S. Rogers,et al.  Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach , 1967 .

[4]  N. Littlestone Learning Quickly When Irrelevant Attributes Abound: A New Linear-Threshold Algorithm , 1987, 28th Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (sfcs 1987).

[5]  Vladimir Vovk,et al.  Aggregating strategies , 1990, COLT '90.

[6]  Yoav Freund,et al.  Boosting a weak learning algorithm by majority , 1990, COLT '90.

[7]  Éva Tardos,et al.  Fast approximation algorithms for fractional packing and covering problems , 1991, [1991] Proceedings 32nd Annual Symposium of Foundations of Computer Science.

[8]  David Haussler,et al.  How to use expert advice , 1993, STOC.

[9]  Dean P. Foster,et al.  A Randomization Rule for Selecting Forecasts , 1993, Oper. Res..

[10]  Manfred K. Warmuth,et al.  The Weighted Majority Algorithm , 1994, Inf. Comput..

[11]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play , 1995 .

[12]  Yoav Freund,et al.  A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting , 1995, EuroCOLT.

[13]  Yoav Freund,et al.  Predicting a binary sequence almost as well as the optimal biased coin , 2003, COLT '96.

[14]  Yoav Freund,et al.  A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting , 1997, EuroCOLT.